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Sweden W vs Spain W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Women Gamla Ullevi, Göteborg
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Match Events

46'
Sub
Sandberg A. In: Angeldal F.
Out: Sandberg A.
46'
Sub
Batlle O. In: Fernandez J.
Out: Batlle O.
46'
Sub
Navarro E. In: Martin-Prieto Gutierrez C.
Out: Navarro E.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Sweden W
20%
Draws
56%
Spain W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Spain W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Spain W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Spain W's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Spain W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Spain W, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Spain W here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Sweden W Clean Sheet 10%
Spain W Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sweden W Spain W
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 14 21
Draws 7 3
Losses 7 4
Goals Scored 2 2.93
Goals Conceded 0.96 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 28, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Sweden W vs Spain W
0:1
Oct 24, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Spain W vs Sweden W
4:0
Dec 5, 2023 UEFA Nations League Women
Spain W vs Sweden W
5:3
Sep 22, 2023 UEFA Nations League Women
Sweden W vs Spain W
2:3
Aug 15, 2023 World Cup Women
Spain W vs Sweden W
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sweden W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Spain W Compare

Top Goalscorer Putellas A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sweden W 10 / 100
Spain W 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sweden W Spain W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spain W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sweden W scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Spain W has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Sweden W remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sweden W VS Spain W
1.13 Goals Scored 3
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sweden W

(Home)
09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2
Italy W
05 Jun
Denmark W
2 : 1
Sweden W
18 Apr
Sweden W
1 : 0
Serbia W
14 Apr
Sweden W
1 : 2
Denmark W
07 Mar
Serbia W
0 : 0
Sweden W
Page 1 of 6

Spain W

(Away)
09 Jun
Iceland W
1 : 6
Spain W
05 Jun
Spain W
4 : 0
England W
18 Apr
Spain W
5 : 0
Ukraine W
14 Apr
England W
1 : 0
Spain W
07 Mar
Ukraine W
1 : 3
Spain W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Germany W 3
France W 2
Spain W 5
Sweden W 0
Final
Germany W 0
Spain W 3
France W 4
Sweden W 3