Sport Picks
Swindon vs Chesterfield
England
League Two 2025/2026 County Ground, Swindon 
Match Events
17'
17'
Wilson-Brown T.
19'
19'
Bonis L.
Assist: Dobra A.
45'
45'
Middlemas B.
Assist: Drinan A.
AI Match Summary
The League Two 2025/2026 game between Swindon and Chesterfield finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chesterfield.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
20%
52%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chesterfield
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Chesterfield come out ahead of Swindon on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Chesterfield's way, sitting at 80%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Swindon Clean Sheet 12%
Chesterfield Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Swindon | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 12 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.37 | 1.36 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.7 | 1.11 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 2, 2026 League Two
Swindon vs Chesterfield
1:2
Nov 29, 2025 League Two
Chesterfield vs Swindon
1:2
Feb 22, 2025 League Two
Swindon vs Chesterfield
1:0
Aug 9, 2024 League Two
Chesterfield vs Swindon
1:1
Feb 24, 2018 League Two
Chesterfield vs Swindon
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Swindon Compare
Top Goalscorer Middlemas B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Chesterfield Compare
Top Goalscorer Bonis L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Markanday D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Swindon 11 / 100
Chesterfield 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Swindon Chesterfield
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chesterfield Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Swindon found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (27 games).
Chesterfield let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Recent resilience: Swindon stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Swindon VS Chesterfield
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Swindon
(Home) 19 Sept
Salford
1 : 0 Swindon
15 Sept
Swindon
1 : 2 Crystal Palace U21
12 Sept
York City
4 : 0 Swindon
05 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Colchester
01 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Port Vale
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
Swindon
1 : 2 Crystal Palace U21
05 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Colchester
01 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Port Vale
22 Aug
Swindon
2 : 1 Cheltenham
28 Jul
Swindon
2 : 1 Leyton Orient
Page 1 of 3
Chesterfield
(Away) 19 Sept
Chesterfield
2 : 0 York City
15 Sept
Chesterfield
5 : 3 Manchester City U21
12 Sept
Oldham
1 : 2 Chesterfield
05 Sept
Chesterfield
3 : 3 Barnet
01 Sept
Chesterfield
1 : 1 Gillingham
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Oldham
1 : 2 Chesterfield
29 Aug
Rotherham
2 : 1 Chesterfield
22 Aug
Salford
0 : 1 Chesterfield
08 Aug
Fleetwood Town
1 : 0 Chesterfield
31 Jul
Scunthorpe
1 : 1 Chesterfield
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bromley | 46 | 24 | 15 | 7 | 71:46 | 87 |
| 2 | Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 86:45 | 86 |
| 3 | Cambridge Utd | 46 | 22 | 16 | 8 | 66:33 | 82 |
| 4 | Salford | 46 | 25 | 6 | 15 | 61:51 | 81 |
| 5 | Notts County | 46 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 74:52 | 80 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 46 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 71:56 | 79 |
| 7 | Grimsby | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 74:50 | 78 |
| 8 | Barnet | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 70:53 | 76 |
| 9 | Swindon | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 70:59 | 75 |
| 10 | Oldham | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 60:44 | 68 |
| 11 | Crewe | 46 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 64:58 | 67 |
| 12 | Colchester | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 62:49 | 66 |
| 13 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 56:56 | 65 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 56:65 | 62 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town | 46 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 57:58 | 61 |
| 16 | Accrington | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47:58 | 53 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 53:72 | 53 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 53:79 | 52 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 42:69 | 49 |
| 20 | Newport | 46 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 48:77 | 43 |
| 21 | Tranmere | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 54:79 | 41 |
| 22 | Crawley Town | 46 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 44:68 | 40 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 39:68 | 39 |
| 24 | Barrow | 46 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 45:78 | 36 |
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)
