Sport Picks
Swindon vs Chesterfield
England
League Two 2025/2026 County Ground, Swindon 
Match Events
17'
17'
Wilson-Brown T.
19'
19'
Bonis L.
Assist: Dobra A.
45'
45'
Middlemas B.
Assist: Drinan A.
AI Match Summary
The League Two 2025/2026 game between Swindon and Chesterfield finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chesterfield.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
22%
28%
50%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Chesterfield
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Chesterfield come out ahead of Swindon on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Chesterfield's way, sitting at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Swindon Clean Sheet 15%
Chesterfield Clean Sheet 18%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Swindon | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 10 |
| Losses | 13 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.13 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.13 | 0.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 2, 2026 League Two
Swindon vs Chesterfield
1:2
Nov 29, 2025 League Two
Chesterfield vs Swindon
1:2
Feb 22, 2025 League Two
Swindon vs Chesterfield
1:0
Aug 9, 2024 League Two
Chesterfield vs Swindon
1:1
Feb 24, 2018 League Two
Chesterfield vs Swindon
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Swindon Compare
Top Goalscorer Middlemas B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Chesterfield Compare
Top Goalscorer Bonis L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Markanday D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Swindon 23 / 100
Chesterfield 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Swindon Chesterfield
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CHE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Swindon found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).
Chesterfield let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Recent resilience: Swindon stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Swindon VS Chesterfield
1 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Swindon
(Home) 25 Jul
Swindon
1 : 3 Bristol City
18 Jul
Crystal Palace
5 : 1 Swindon
14 Jul
Swindon
0 : 1 Chippenham Town
04 Jul
Swindon
4 : 0 Swindon Supermarine
02 May
Swindon
1 : 2 Chesterfield
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Swindon
1 : 3 Bristol City
14 Jul
Swindon
0 : 1 Chippenham Town
04 Jul
Swindon
4 : 0 Swindon Supermarine
02 May
Swindon
1 : 2 Chesterfield
18 Apr
Swindon
2 : 2 Accrington
Page 1 of 3
Chesterfield
(Away) 14 Jul
Halifax
3 : 2 Chesterfield
11 Jul
Chesterfield
0 : 0 Sheffield Utd
15 May
Notts County
0 : 0 Chesterfield
10 May
Chesterfield
0 : 1 Notts County
02 May
Swindon
1 : 2 Chesterfield
Page 1 of 6
14 Jul
Halifax
3 : 2 Chesterfield
15 May
Notts County
0 : 0 Chesterfield
02 May
Swindon
1 : 2 Chesterfield
18 Apr
Fleetwood Town
1 : 1 Chesterfield
06 Apr
Barrow
0 : 1 Chesterfield
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bromley | 46 | 24 | 15 | 7 | 71:46 | 87 |
| 2 | Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 86:45 | 86 |
| 3 | Cambridge Utd | 46 | 22 | 16 | 8 | 66:33 | 82 |
| 4 | Salford | 46 | 25 | 6 | 15 | 61:51 | 81 |
| 5 | Notts County | 46 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 74:52 | 80 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 46 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 71:56 | 79 |
| 7 | Grimsby | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 74:50 | 78 |
| 8 | Barnet | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 70:53 | 76 |
| 9 | Swindon | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 70:59 | 75 |
| 10 | Oldham | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 60:44 | 68 |
| 11 | Crewe | 46 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 64:58 | 67 |
| 12 | Colchester | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 62:49 | 66 |
| 13 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 56:56 | 65 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 56:65 | 62 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town | 46 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 57:58 | 61 |
| 16 | Accrington | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47:58 | 53 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 53:72 | 53 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 53:79 | 52 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 42:69 | 49 |
| 20 | Newport | 46 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 48:77 | 43 |
| 21 | Tranmere | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 54:79 | 41 |
| 22 | Crawley Town | 46 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 44:68 | 40 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 39:68 | 39 |
| 24 | Barrow | 46 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 45:78 | 36 |
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)
