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Swindon vs Crewe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League Two County Ground, Swindon
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
11:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Swindon host Crewe in the League Two. Little to choose between these two on current form. Swindon have averaged 1.32 scored and 1.71 conceded recently, against Crewe's 1.39 scored and 1.14 conceded. Past meetings favor Crewe slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 21, 2026, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 1.69) point toward Crewe. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Swindon
35%
Draws
57%
Crewe
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Crewe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Swindon haven't matched Crewe's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Crewe a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Swindon Clean Sheet 13%
Crewe Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Swindon Crewe
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 11
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.32 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 League Two
Swindon vs Crewe
1:2
Aug 30, 2025 League Two
Crewe vs Swindon
0:3
Jan 11, 2025 League Two
Swindon vs Crewe
0:0
Aug 24, 2024 League Two
Crewe vs Swindon
0:0
Jan 13, 2024 League Two
Crewe vs Swindon
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Swindon 19 / 100
Crewe 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Swindon Crewe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Crewe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Swindon's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Crewe's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Swindon has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Swindon VS Crewe
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Swindon

(Home)
26 Sept
Swindon
1 : 1
Accrington
22 Sept
Swindon
0 : 2
Newport
19 Sept
Salford
1 : 0
Swindon
15 Sept
Swindon
1 : 2
Crystal Palace U21
12 Sept
York City
4 : 0
Swindon
Page 1 of 6

Crewe

(Away)
26 Sept
Rotherham
1 : 1
Crewe
22 Sept
Crewe
4 : 1
Aston Villa U21
19 Sept
Crewe
1 : 1
Shrewsbury
12 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1
Crewe
05 Sept
Crewe
1 : 1
York City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17:10 15
2 Cheltenham 8 4 3 1 16:12 15
3 Bristol Rovers 8 5 0 3 13:11 15
4 York City 8 4 2 2 16:10 14
5 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11:5 14
6 Grimsby 8 3 4 1 12:8 13
7 Salford 8 4 1 3 12:10 13
8 Gillingham 8 3 3 2 11:9 12
9 Crewe 8 2 6 0 8:6 12
10 Tranmere 8 2 5 1 10:8 11
11 Chesterfield 8 3 2 3 11:10 11
12 Swindon 8 3 2 3 9:12 11
13 Rotherham 8 2 4 2 11:11 10
14 Fleetwood Town 8 2 4 2 9:9 10
15 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10:12 10
16 Rochdale 8 3 1 4 9:11 10
17 Newport 8 2 3 3 12:12 9
18 Shrewsbury 8 2 2 4 7:13 8
19 Accrington 8 1 4 3 11:14 7
20 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9:13 7
21 Exeter 8 1 3 4 4:6 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3:6 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3:9 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)