Sport Picks
Swindon vs Peterborough
England
EFL Trophy 2025/2026 County Ground, Swindon 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Oldaker D. In: Drinan A.
Out: Oldaker D.
58'
58'
Sub
Kilkenny G. In: Clarke O.
Out: Kilkenny G.
58'
58'
Sub
Ball J. In: Nichols T.
Out: Ball J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-0, with Swindon advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
13%
17%
70%
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Peterborough
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
88%
/ Very High Confidence
- Swindon carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Peterborough's way, sitting at 70%.
- Swindon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Peterborough, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Peterborough here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Swindon Clean Sheet 16%
Peterborough Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Swindon | Peterborough |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.13 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 2, 2025 EFL Trophy
Swindon vs Peterborough
1:0
Aug 8, 2023 EFL Cup
Peterborough vs Swindon
2:1
Jul 31, 2021 Club Friendly
Swindon vs Peterborough
0:1
Apr 10, 2021 League One
Swindon vs Peterborough
0:3
Oct 3, 2020 League One
Peterborough vs Swindon
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Swindon Compare
Top Goalscorer Clarke O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Peterborough Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Swindon 15 / 100
Peterborough 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Swindon Peterborough
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick PET Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Swindon found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).
Peterborough's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Swindon went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Swindon VS Peterborough
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Swindon
(Home) 28 Jul
Swindon
2 : 1 Leyton Orient
25 Jul
Swindon
1 : 3 Bristol City
18 Jul
Crystal Palace
5 : 1 Swindon
14 Jul
Swindon
0 : 1 Chippenham Town
04 Jul
Swindon
4 : 0 Swindon Supermarine
Page 1 of 6
28 Jul
Swindon
2 : 1 Leyton Orient
25 Jul
Swindon
1 : 3 Bristol City
14 Jul
Swindon
0 : 1 Chippenham Town
04 Jul
Swindon
4 : 0 Swindon Supermarine
02 May
Swindon
1 : 2 Chesterfield
Page 1 of 3
Peterborough
(Away) 28 Jul
York City
1 : 2 Peterborough
25 Jul
Boston United
1 : 0 Peterborough
22 Jul
Peterborough Sports
0 : 1 Peterborough
21 Jul
Colchester
2 : 3 Peterborough
17 Jul
Peterborough
0 : 0 Neom SC
Page 1 of 6
28 Jul
York City
1 : 2 Peterborough
25 Jul
Boston United
1 : 0 Peterborough
22 Jul
Peterborough Sports
0 : 1 Peterborough
21 Jul
Colchester
2 : 3 Peterborough
25 Apr
Stockport County
3 : 1 Peterborough
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Lincoln City0
Huddersfield2
Salford2
Rotherham7
Doncaster5
Chesterfield1
Tranmere0
Fleetwood Town3
Bolton3
Bradford City0
Port Vale5
Barnsley0
Crewe1
Stockport County2
Harrogate4
Blackpool2
Luton4
Exeter0
Swindon1
Peterborough0
Bristol Rovers3
Cambridge Utd2
Leyton Orient0
Plymouth1
Cardiff1
AFC Wimbledon5
Colchester0
West Ham U211
Northampton2
Wycombe0
Stevenage1
Walsall2
1/8-finals
Huddersfield3
Rotherham0
Doncaster3
Fleetwood Town1
Bolton0
Port Vale1
Stockport County2
Harrogate1
Luton1
Swindon2
Bristol Rovers3
Plymouth4
AFC Wimbledon4
West Ham U212
Northampton4
Walsall2
Quarter-finals
Huddersfield1
Doncaster2
Port Vale0
Stockport County4
Luton2
Plymouth1
AFC Wimbledon1
Northampton2
Semi-finals
Doncaster0
Stockport County1
Luton2
Northampton1
Final
Stockport County1
Luton3
