Sport Picks
Swindon vs Peterborough
England
EFL Trophy 2025/2026 County Ground, Swindon 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Oldaker D. In: Drinan A.
Out: Oldaker D.
58'
58'
Sub
Kilkenny G. In: Clarke O.
Out: Kilkenny G.
58'
58'
Sub
Ball J. In: Nichols T.
Out: Ball J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-0, with Swindon advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
10%
20%
70%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Peterborough
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ High Confidence
- Swindon's 1.32 goals per match outpaces what Peterborough have produced (1.24).
- Win probability leans Peterborough's way, sitting at 70%.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Peterborough, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Peterborough here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Swindon Clean Sheet 12%
Peterborough Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Swindon | Peterborough |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.32 | 1.24 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.71 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 2, 2025 EFL Trophy
Swindon vs Peterborough
1:0
Aug 8, 2023 EFL Cup
Peterborough vs Swindon
2:1
Jul 31, 2021 Club Friendly
Swindon vs Peterborough
0:1
Apr 10, 2021 League One
Swindon vs Peterborough
0:3
Oct 3, 2020 League One
Peterborough vs Swindon
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Swindon Compare
Top Goalscorer Clarke O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Peterborough Compare
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Swindon 14 / 100
Peterborough 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Swindon Peterborough
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Peterborough Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Peterborough conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.
Swindon's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Swindon went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Swindon VS Peterborough
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Swindon
(Home) 26 Sept
Swindon
1 : 1 Accrington
22 Sept
Swindon
0 : 2 Newport
19 Sept
Salford
1 : 0 Swindon
15 Sept
Swindon
1 : 2 Crystal Palace U21
12 Sept
York City
4 : 0 Swindon
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Swindon
1 : 1 Accrington
22 Sept
Swindon
0 : 2 Newport
15 Sept
Swindon
1 : 2 Crystal Palace U21
05 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Colchester
01 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Port Vale
Page 1 of 3
Peterborough
(Away) 26 Sept
Stockport County
1 : 0 Peterborough
22 Sept
Peterborough
3 : 1 Colchester
19 Sept
Peterborough
0 : 2 Doncaster
15 Sept
Peterborough
4 : 3 Barnsley
12 Sept
Milton Keynes Dons
1 : 1 Peterborough
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Stockport County
1 : 0 Peterborough
12 Sept
Milton Keynes Dons
1 : 1 Peterborough
29 Aug
Blackpool
4 : 0 Peterborough
25 Aug
Watford
1 : 5 Peterborough
15 Aug
Bradford City
2 : 0 Peterborough
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Lincoln City 0
Huddersfield 2
Salford 2
Rotherham 7
Doncaster 5
Chesterfield 1
Tranmere 0
Fleetwood Town 3
Bolton 3
Bradford City 0
Port Vale 5
Barnsley 0
Crewe 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 4
Blackpool 2
Luton 4
Exeter 0
Swindon 1
Peterborough 0
Bristol Rovers 3
Cambridge Utd 2
Leyton Orient 0
Plymouth 1
Cardiff 1
AFC Wimbledon 5
Colchester 0
West Ham U21 1
Northampton 2
Wycombe 0
Stevenage 1
Walsall 2
1/8-finals
Huddersfield 3
Rotherham 0
Doncaster 3
Fleetwood Town 1
Bolton 0
Port Vale 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 1
Luton 1
Swindon 2
Bristol Rovers 3
Plymouth 4
AFC Wimbledon 4
West Ham U21 2
Northampton 4
Walsall 2
Quarter-finals
Huddersfield 1
Doncaster 2
Port Vale 0
Stockport County 4
Luton 2
Plymouth 1
AFC Wimbledon 1
Northampton 2
Semi-finals
Doncaster 0
Stockport County 1
Luton 2
Northampton 1
Final
Stockport County 1
Luton 3
