Sport Picks
Match Events
43'
43'
Handley T.
50'
50'
Fowler V.
64'
64'
Richards I.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-3, with Merthyr Town advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
20%
46%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Merthyr Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Merthyr Town carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Merthyr Town a 46% chance of winning this.
- Merthyr Town arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Merthyr Town, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38.8%
Taffs Well Clean Sheet 15%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Taffs Well | Merthyr Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 3 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 22 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.54 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.67 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.42 | 1.55 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 19, 2024 League Cup
Taffs Well vs Merthyr Town
1:3
Jul 12, 2024 Club Friendly
Taffs Well vs Merthyr Town
1:6
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Taffs Well Compare
Top Goalscorer Fowler V.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Richards I.
2 Goals Assists Leader Handley T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.86
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Taffs Well 10 / 100
Merthyr Town 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Taffs Well Merthyr Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Merthyr Town Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Merthyr Town conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.
H2H data points to 5.50 goals as a typical output.
Attacking prowess: Taffs Well scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.
Solid form: Taffs Well remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
- VS Merthyr Town
0 Goals Scored 2
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Taffs Well
(Home) 18 Oct
Cardiff Metropolitan University
5 : 1 Taffs Well
20 Sept
Taffs Well
2 : 1 Abertillery Excelsiors
04 Jul
Taffs Well
0 : 4 Caerau Ely
25 Jun
Taffs Well
4 : 1 Cwmbran Town
21 Jun
Taffs Well
1 : 5 Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Taffs Well
2 : 1 Abertillery Excelsiors
04 Jul
Taffs Well
0 : 4 Caerau Ely
25 Jun
Taffs Well
4 : 1 Cwmbran Town
21 Jun
Taffs Well
1 : 5 Carmarthen Town
12 Apr
Taffs Well
1 : 3 Afan Lido
Page 1 of 4
Merthyr Town
(Away) 19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
22 Aug
South Shields
1 : 1 Merthyr Town
15 Aug
Spennymoor
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Prestatyn 1
Buckley 5
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Colwyn Bay -
TBD -
TBD -
Aberystwyth -
Llandudno FC 3
Newport 0
Penrhyncoch 0
Guilsfield 3
Cardiff U21 3
Afan Lido 1
TBD -
Pontypridd United -
Taffs Well 1
Merthyr Town 3
TBD -
Ammanford Town -
Llantwit Major 2
Newport City 0
TBD -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 1
Goytre Utd 4
Caerau Ely 2
Trefelin 1
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Trethomas Bluebirds 3
Baglan Dragons 2
Swansea U21 1
Barry Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Llanelli -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Carmarthen Town 2
Cambrian United 1
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Flint Mountain 0
Gresford 3
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Mold Alexandra 2
TNS -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Town -
Ruthin Town 2
Bangor 1876 1
TBD -
Bala -
Caersws FC 0
Holywell Town FC 1
Llay Welfare 3
Denbigh 1
1/16-finals
Buckley 0
Connahs Q. 3
Newtown 2
Caernarfon 3
Colwyn Bay 0
Aberystwyth 2
Llandudno FC 3
Guilsfield 2
Cardiff U21 3
Pontypridd United 1
Merthyr Town 2
Ammanford Town 0
Llantwit Major 2
Cardiff Metropolitan University 3
Goytre Utd 3
Caerau Ely 2
Trethomas Bluebirds 3
Baglan Dragons 1
Barry Town 2
Llanelli 1
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 3
Carmarthen Town 0
Haverfordwest 5
Gresford 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 4
TNS 5
Flint Town 1
Ruthin Town 0
Bala 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Llay Welfare 1
1/8-finals
Connahs Q. 3
Caernarfon 2
Aberystwyth 3
Llandudno FC 2
Cardiff U21 2
Merthyr Town 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 9
Goytre Utd 1
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Barry Town 4
Penybont 1
Haverfordwest 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
TNS 1
Bala 2
Holywell Town FC 0
Quarter-finals
Connahs Q. 1
Aberystwyth 2
Cardiff U21 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Barry Town 3
Penybont 2
TNS 3
Bala 1
Semi-finals
Aberystwyth 2
Cardiff U21 1
Barry Town 1
TNS 2
Final
Aberystwyth 0
TNS 1
