Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tahiti U17 vs Tonga U17

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Championship U17 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Hutia D.
32' Event
Guillemant T.
68' Event
Faure K.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 5-0, with Tahiti U17 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

68%
Tahiti U17
15%
Draws
17%
Tonga U17
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tahiti U17

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Tahiti U17 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Tahiti U17 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Tahiti U17 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Tahiti U17, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Tahiti U17 here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Tahiti U17 Clean Sheet 20%
Tonga U17 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tahiti U17 Tonga U17
Matches Played 19 14
Wins 14 2
Draws 1 0
Losses 4 12
Goals Scored 3.53 0.79
Goals Conceded 0.74 7.43
Expected Goals (xG) 4.00 0.51
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2023 OFC Championship U16
Tahiti U17 vs Tonga U17
5:0
Jan 18, 2015 OFC Championship U16
Tonga U17 vs Tahiti U17
0:13
Jan 9, 2011 OFC Championship U16
Tonga U17 vs Tahiti U17
0:8

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tahiti U17 Compare

Top Goalscorer Guillemant T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hutia D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.08
Avg xA / game 2

Tonga U17 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.46
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tahiti U17 85 / 100
Tonga U17 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tahiti U17 Tonga U17

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tahiti U17 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tahiti U17 scored in 95% of their last 19 outings.

Defensive concern: Tonga U17 conceded in 93% of 14 recent games.

Historical meetings average 8.67 goals per match.

Tahiti U17 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tahiti U17 VS Tonga U17
4.38 Goals Scored 0.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 5.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Tahiti U17

(Home)
28 Jan
Tahiti U17
3 : 0
Fiji U17
25 Jan
New Caledonia U17
2 : 1
Tahiti U17
21 Jan
Tahiti U17
5 : 0
Tonga U17
14 Jan
Tahiti U17
6 : 0
Cook Islands U17
11 Jan
Tahiti U17
2 : 1
Vanuatu U17
Page 1 of 4

Tonga U17

(Away)
21 Jan
Tahiti U17
5 : 0
Tonga U17
18 Jan
Tonga U17
0 : 3
Fiji U17
15 Jan
Tonga U17
0 : 6
Samoa U17
20 Jan
Tonga U17
2 : 0
American Samoa U17
18 Jan
Tonga U17
0 : 13
Tahiti U17
Page 1 of 3

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
New Caledonia U17 4
Samoa U17 0
Tahiti U17 5
Tonga U17 0
Fiji U17 3
Cook Islands U17 0
New Zealand U17 1
Vanuatu U17 0
Semi-finals
New Caledonia U17 2
Tahiti U17 1
Fiji U17 1
New Zealand U17 4
Final
New Caledonia U17 0
New Zealand U17 1
Tahiti U17 3
Fiji U17 0