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Tahiti vs New Caledonia

World World

Friendly International 2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2018 game between Tahiti and New Caledonia finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tahiti.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Tahiti
15%
Draws
34%
New Caledonia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tahiti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • New Caledonia's 2.22 goals per match outpaces what Tahiti have produced (1.85).
  • Model gives Tahiti a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International 2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Tahiti Clean Sheet 18%
New Caledonia Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tahiti New Caledonia
Matches Played 27 23
Wins 13 13
Draws 4 2
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.85 2.22
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2025 World Championship
New Caledonia vs Tahiti
3:0
Mar 24, 2023 Friendly International
Tahiti vs New Caledonia
2:1
Mar 21, 2023 Friendly International
Tahiti vs New Caledonia
0:2
Jul 15, 2019 Pacific Games
Tahiti vs New Caledonia
0:3
Mar 24, 2018 Friendly International
Tahiti vs New Caledonia
4:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tahiti 76 / 100
New Caledonia 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tahiti New Caledonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tahiti Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Tahiti found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (27 games).

New Caledonia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 23 matches.

Tahiti went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tahiti VS New Caledonia
1.33 Goals Scored 1.5
1.17 Goals Conceded 0.88
83% Over 1.5 75%
67% Over 2.5 50%
17% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tahiti

(Home)
27 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tahiti
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
18 Nov
Tahiti
2 : 0
Vanuatu
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
11 Oct
New Zealand
3 : 0
Tahiti
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New Caledonia

(Away)
27 Sept
Vanuatu
4 : 1
New Caledonia
24 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 2
New Caledonia
21 Sept
New Caledonia
0 : 2
Solomon Islands
27 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 1
Jamaica
08 Oct
Gibraltar
0 : 2
New Caledonia
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