Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tallinna Kalev vs Nomme Utd U21

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Kadrioru Staadion, Tallinn
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Ilves R.
45' Event
Ilves R.
52' Event
Rootsma O.
Assist: Vain B.

AI Match Summary

The Esiliiga game between Tallinna Kalev and Nomme Utd U21 finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tallinna Kalev.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Tallinna Kalev
20%
Draws
40%
Nomme Utd U21
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Nomme Utd U21 haven't matched Tallinna Kalev's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
Tallinna Kalev Clean Sheet 20%
Nomme Utd U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tallinna Kalev Nomme Utd U21
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 6 6
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 2.28 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.72 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2026 Esiliiga
Nomme Utd U21 vs Tallinna Kalev
2:1
Jul 18, 2026 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Nomme Utd U21
3:1
Jun 18, 2026 Esiliiga
Nomme Utd U21 vs Tallinna Kalev
1:2
May 1, 2026 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Nomme Utd U21
4:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tallinna Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer Ilves R.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Nomme Utd U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Rootsma O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tallinna Kalev 32 / 100
Nomme Utd U21 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tallinna Kalev Nomme Utd U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nomme Utd U21 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tallinna Kalev scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Nomme Utd U21 let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Nomme Utd U21 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tallinna Kalev VS Nomme Utd U21
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tallinna Kalev

(Home)
10 Sept
Nomme Utd U21
2 : 1
Tallinna Kalev
05 Sept
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 1
Tartu JK Welco
29 Aug
Flora Tallinn U21
5 : 0
Tallinna Kalev
24 Aug
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 3
Maardu Linnameeskond
20 Aug
Kalju U21
0 : 3
Tallinna Kalev
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Nomme Utd U21

(Away)
10 Sept
Nomme Utd U21
2 : 1
Tallinna Kalev
06 Sept
Maardu Linnameeskond
2 : 1
Nomme Utd U21
03 Sept
Nomme Utd U21
0 : 1
Elva
24 Aug
Viimsi JK
4 : 1
Nomme Utd U21
20 Aug
FC Tallinn
1 : 1
Nomme Utd U21
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tartu JK Welco 28 17 5 6 76:39 56
2 Viimsi JK 28 15 5 8 56:28 50
3 Flora Tallinn U21 28 14 5 9 69:49 47
4 Elva 28 13 5 10 44:42 44
5 Maardu Linnameeskond 27 12 5 10 45:55 41
6 Levadia U21 28 12 2 14 55:54 38
7 Tallinna Kalev 28 10 6 12 50:53 36
8 Nomme Utd U21 28 8 6 14 46:60 30
9 FC Tallinn 27 7 7 13 33:57 28
10 Kalju U21 28 6 4 18 36:73 22
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)