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Stadium Background

Tampa Bay vs North Carolina FC

USA USA

USL Championship 2025 Al Lang Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Conway E.
29'
Sub
Roberts T. In: Maldonado M.
Out: Roberts T.
37' Event
Arteaga M.
Assist: Marie P.

AI Match Summary

The USL Championship 2025 game between Tampa Bay and North Carolina FC finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Tampa Bay
22%
Draws
18%
North Carolina FC
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Tampa Bay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tampa Bay come out ahead of North Carolina FC on wins alone.
  • Model gives Tampa Bay a 60% chance of winning this.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship 2025 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 20%
North Carolina FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tampa Bay North Carolina FC
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 19 14
Draws 8 4
Losses 4 12
Goals Scored 1.75 0
Goals Conceded 0.5 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2025 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs North Carolina FC
2:2
Aug 9, 2025 USL Championship
North Carolina FC vs Tampa Bay
2:1
Oct 19, 2024 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs North Carolina FC
0:2
Mar 23, 2024 USL Championship
North Carolina FC vs Tampa Bay
1:1
Jul 25, 2020 USL Championship
North Carolina FC vs Tampa Bay
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tampa Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Arteaga M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pacius W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

North Carolina FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Conway E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Anderson O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tampa Bay 58 / 100
North Carolina FC 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tampa Bay North Carolina FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tampa Bay scored in 94% of their last 31 outings.

North Carolina FC has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Tampa Bay has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tampa Bay VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Louisville City30227156:1973
2Charleston30195662:3262
3North Carolina FC301361140:3945
4Hartford Athletic301351248:3644
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds301281032:2844
6Loudoun United301261245:4842
7Rhode Island301081229:2938
8Detroit City309101133:3537
9Indy Eleven301051544:5235
10Tampa Bay30971443:5034
11Miami FC30861629:4430
12Birmingham Legion305121336:5027
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FC Tulsa30169550:3057
2New Mexico301461045:4148
3Sacramento Republic30139844:2748
4El Paso Locomotive301011947:4541
5San Antonio FC301171239:3840
6Phoenix Rising30913848:4840
7Orange County SC301091144:4539
8Colorado Springs301071335:4737
9Lexington30991231:4236
10Oakland Roots30881442:5232
11Monterey Bay30781527:4529
12Las Vegas Lights30691523:5027