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Tapa vs Tallinna Kalev

Estonia Estonia

Estonian Cup 2011/2012
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tapa play Tallinna Kalev in the Estonian Cup 2011/2012. Tallinna Kalev are favorites here. Recently, Tapa averaged 0.8 goals scored and 5.2 conceded. Tallinna Kalev averaged 2.06 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. In past meetings, Tapa won 0, Tallinna Kalev won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 3, 2011 ended 0:8. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.92 for Tapa and 1.24 for Tallinna Kalev. This points to a Tallinna Kalev double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Tapa
15%
Draws
65%
Tallinna Kalev
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tallinna Kalev

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Tapa picked up more points recently compared to Tallinna Kalev.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.92 vs 1.24 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 52%
Over 4.5 Goals 26%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%
Tapa Clean Sheet 19%
Tallinna Kalev Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 90%
Second Half Goal 95%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tapa Tallinna Kalev
Matches Played 5 31
Wins 1 13
Draws 0 4
Losses 4 14
Goals Scored 0.8 2.06
Goals Conceded 5.2 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 3, 2011 Estonian Cup
Tapa vs Tallinna Kalev
0:8

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tapa 22 / 100
Tallinna Kalev 61 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tapa Tallinna Kalev

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tallinna Kalev Win (2)
Secondary Pick Tallinna Kalev & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +66.6%
8.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +7.5%
1.25
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tapa attacking → ← attacking Tallinna Kalev

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tapa scored in 60% of their last 5 games.

Tallinna Kalev let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 8.00 goals.

Tapa went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Tallinna Kalev lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

3 Points in last 5 43
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63