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Tartu JK Welco vs Kalju U21 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Holm Jalgpallipark, Tartu
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Match Events

11' Event
Laasner K.
58' Event
Kablik H.
Assist: Ernits H.
64' Event
Kablik H.
Assist: Sossi M.

AI Match Summary

The Esiliiga game between Tartu JK Welco and Kalju U21 finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tartu JK Welco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
Tartu JK Welco
20%
Draws
17%
Kalju U21
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tartu JK Welco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

63% / High Confidence
  • Tartu JK Welco carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 63% — that's where the model lands on Tartu JK Welco taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tartu JK Welco have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 20%
Kalju U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tartu JK Welco Kalju U21
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 19 7
Draws 5 3
Losses 6 19
Goals Scored 3.03 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.23 2.66
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Kalju U21
3:0
Aug 23, 2026 Esiliiga
Kalju U21 vs Tartu JK Welco
2:4
May 28, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Kalju U21
4:2
Apr 11, 2026 Esiliiga
Kalju U21 vs Tartu JK Welco
1:5
Oct 23, 2025 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Kalju U21
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Top Goalscorer Kablik H.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Laasner K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Kalju U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tartu JK Welco 85 / 100
Kalju U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tartu JK Welco Kalju U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tartu JK Welco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tartu JK Welco scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Kalju U21 has conceded goals in 89% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 5.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Tartu JK Welco stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tartu JK Welco VS Kalju U21
2.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tartu JK Welco

(Home)
09 Oct
Tartu JK Welco
4 : 0
Elva
17 Sept
Viimsi JK
0 : 2
Tartu JK Welco
14 Sept
Tartu JK Welco
3 : 0
Kalju U21
10 Sept
Levadia U21
0 : 0
Tartu JK Welco
05 Sept
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 1
Tartu JK Welco
Page 1 of 6

Kalju U21

(Away)
11 Oct
Maardu Linnameeskond
:
Kalju U21
21 Sept
Kalju U21
2 : 3
Nomme Utd U21
14 Sept
Tartu JK Welco
3 : 0
Kalju U21
10 Sept
Kalju U21
1 : 5
Flora Tallinn U21
06 Sept
Elva
1 : 0
Kalju U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tartu JK Welco 32 21 5 6 85:39 68
2 Viimsi JK 31 16 5 10 56:31 53
3 Flora Tallinn U21 32 15 6 11 73:55 51
4 Elva 32 15 6 11 47:48 51
5 Levadia U21 31 15 2 14 61:55 47
6 Tallinna Kalev 30 11 7 12 52:55 40
7 Nomme Utd U21 32 11 6 15 50:63 39
8 FC Tallinn 31 9 8 14 41:64 35
9 Kalju U21 31 7 4 20 38:79 25
10 Maardu Linnameeskond 36 12 5 19 45:59 41
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)