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Tasman United vs Hamilton

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship 2019/2020
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Tieku D.
24' Event
Tod-Smith M.
45' Event
Randall J.

AI Match Summary

Hamilton in this Football Championship 2019/2020 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hamilton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Tasman United
15%
Draws
48%
Hamilton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hamilton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Hamilton have won more games recently than Tasman United.
  • Tasman United are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Tasman United Clean Sheet 20%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tasman United Hamilton
Matches Played 28 33
Wins 8 14
Draws 7 7
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.54 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2020 Football Championship
Hamilton vs Tasman United
3:3
Dec 15, 2019 Football Championship
Tasman United vs Hamilton
2:3
Jan 13, 2019 Football Championship
Hamilton vs Tasman United
2:3
Oct 28, 2018 Football Championship
Tasman United vs Hamilton
1:2
Jan 14, 2018 Football Championship
Tasman United vs Hamilton
4:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tasman United Compare

Top Goalscorer Tod-Smith M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Randall J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Hamilton Compare

Top Goalscorer Tieku D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Semmy T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tasman United 40 / 100
Hamilton 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tasman United Hamilton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tasman United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Hamilton conceded in 88% of 33 recent games.

H2H data points to 5.40 goals as a typical output.

Tasman United scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Tasman United has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Hamilton
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tasman United

(Home)
14 Mar
Hamilton
3 : 3
Tasman United
08 Mar
Wellington Phoenix 2
3 : 1
Tasman United
23 Feb
Tasman United
2 : 1
Auckland City
09 Feb
Team Wellington
3 : 1
Tasman United
02 Feb
Tasman United
3 : 1
Hawke s Bay
Page 1 of 6

Hamilton

(Away)
29 Jul
Hamilton
0 : 3
Christchurch
09 Jul
Hamilton
3 : 2
Ngaruawahia AFC
20 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 0
Hamilton
30 Jul
Miramar
3 : 4
Hamilton
09 Jul
Auckland United
0 : 1
Hamilton
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Auckland City 16 11 4 1 42:15 37
2 Team Wellington 16 10 4 2 36:15 34
3 Waitakere United 16 8 3 5 35:32 27
4 Eastern Suburbs 16 6 4 6 33:26 22
5 Tasman United 16 6 2 8 27:26 20
6 Hamilton 16 6 2 8 24:39 20
7 Southern United 16 5 4 7 25:38 19
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 16 4 6 6 30:32 18
9 Hawke s Bay 16 4 3 9 32:44 15
10 Canterbury 16 2 4 10 19:36 10
Promotion - Football Championship 2019/2020 (Play Offs)