Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group E

Tau

6 - 1

Follonica Gavorrano

Our Tip

Match Events

16'

Pescicani L.

28'

Borracchini N.

40'

Carcani T.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E game between Tau and Follonica Gavorrano finished 6-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Tau

40%

Draws

29%

Follonica Gavorrano

Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Tau come out ahead of Follonica Gavorrano on wins alone.
40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 27%

Over 3.5 Goals 13%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%

Tau Clean Sheet 20%

Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tau	Follonica Gavorrano
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	14	8
Draws	8	9
Losses	8	13
Goals Scored	0.88	0.88
Goals Conceded	1.13	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group E

Follonica Gavorrano vs Tau

Possession: 41% - 48% Cards: 1 - 4

1:2

Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group E

Tau vs Follonica Gavorrano

Possession: 47% - 59% Cards: 4 - 1

6:1

May 12, 2024 Serie D - Group E

Follonica Gavorrano vs Tau

Possession: 42% - 44% Cards: 3 - 1

1:3

Mar 3, 2024 Serie D - Group E

Tau vs Follonica Gavorrano

Possession: 44% - 41% Cards: 2 - 4

0:1

Oct 28, 2023 Serie D - Group E

Follonica Gavorrano vs Tau

Possession: 42% - 48% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tau Compare

Top Goalscorer Carcani T.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Borracchini N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Follonica Gavorrano Compare

Top Goalscorer Pescicani L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tau 32 / 100

Follonica Gavorrano 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tau Follonica Gavorrano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Follonica Gavorrano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Tau scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Tau went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tau VS Follonica Gavorrano

0.88 Goals Scored 0.88

1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88

50% Over 1.5 63%

25% Over 2.5 13%

13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Grosseto	34	22	6	6	58:25	72
2	Tau	34	18	9	7	53:33	63
3	Prato	34	20	5	9	49:29	63
4	Siena	34	17	9	8	57:35	60
5	Seravezza Pozzi	34	15	12	7	42:29	57
6	Terranuova Traiana	34	14	9	11	28:30	51
7	Foligno	34	14	9	11	45:37	51
8	Scandicci	34	11	15	8	39:32	48
9	Montevarchi	34	10	16	8	28:32	46
10	Sporting Trestina	34	10	12	12	40:42	42
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	34	9	13	12	30:35	40
12	Ghiviborgo	34	10	10	14	42:44	40
13	Orvietana	34	9	11	14	33:37	38
14	Follonica Gavorrano	34	9	10	15	36:49	37
15	Camaiore Calcio	34	9	8	17	41:54	35
16	Poggibonsi	34	7	10	17	29:46	31
17	Cannara	34	6	8	20	24:59	26
18	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	34	2	16	16	20:46	22