Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tau vs Ghiviborgo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Carcani T.
(Penalty)
38' Event
Carcani P.
86' Event
Cannarsa D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 game between Tau and Ghiviborgo finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Tau
15%
Draws
8%
Ghiviborgo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Tau carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Tau are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Tau Clean Sheet 68%
Ghiviborgo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tau Ghiviborgo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 4
Draws 7 9
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.48 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Ghiviborgo vs Tau
0:1
Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Tau vs Ghiviborgo
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Ghiviborgo vs Tau
0:0
Apr 7, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Ghiviborgo vs Tau
1:1
Nov 26, 2023 Serie D - Group E
Tau vs Ghiviborgo
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tau Compare

Top Goalscorer Carcani P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Ghiviborgo Compare

Top Goalscorer Cannarsa D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tau 50 / 100
Ghiviborgo 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tau Ghiviborgo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ghiviborgo let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Tau's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Tau went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tau VS Ghiviborgo
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tau

(Home)
04 Oct
Ghiviborgo
0 : 1
Tau
27 Sept
Tau
3 : 2
Rondinella
20 Sept
Ternana
3 : 0
Tau
16 Sept
Tau
3 : 2
Siena
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1
Tau
Page 1 of 6

Ghiviborgo

(Away)
04 Oct
Ghiviborgo
0 : 1
Tau
27 Sept
Prato
2 : 1
Ghiviborgo
20 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1
Mezzolara
16 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
12 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 3
Terranuova Traiana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)