Sport Picks

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Tau vs Sporting Trestina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Confessore L.

AI Match Summary

Sporting Trestina in this Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sporting Trestina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Tau
30%
Draws
23%
Sporting Trestina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Tau have won more games recently than Sporting Trestina.
  • Win probability leans Tau's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Tau Clean Sheet 68%
Sporting Trestina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tau Sporting Trestina
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 8
Draws 8 11
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.46 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Tau vs Sporting Trestina
0:1
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Sporting Trestina vs Tau
0:1
Mar 28, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Tau vs Sporting Trestina
4:0
Nov 19, 2023 Serie D - Group E
Sporting Trestina vs Tau
1:1
Jan 15, 2023 Serie D - Group E
Sporting Trestina vs Tau
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tau Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Sporting Trestina Compare

Top Goalscorer Confessore L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tau 50 / 100
Sporting Trestina 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tau Sporting Trestina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tau's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Sporting Trestina has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Sporting Trestina's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Tau VS Sporting Trestina
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tau

(Home)
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1
Tau
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
12 Aug
Tau
0 : 1
US Pontedera
05 Aug
Grosseto
2 : 2
Tau
10 May
Tau
0 : 2
Seravezza Pozzi
Page 1 of 6

Sporting Trestina

(Away)
12 Sept
Lanciano FC
0 : 0
Sporting Trestina
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5
Vigor Senigallia
29 Jul
Gubbio
2 : 0
Sporting Trestina
03 May
Siena
4 : 4
Sporting Trestina
26 Apr
Sporting Trestina
0 : 2
Prato
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)