Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tau vs Terranuova Traiana

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Tordiglione N.
54' Event
Tordiglione N.
56' Event
Carcani T.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 game between Tau and Terranuova Traiana finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Tau
15%
Draws
37%
Terranuova Traiana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Tau carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Terranuova Traiana a 37% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Tau Clean Sheet 10%
Terranuova Traiana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tau Terranuova Traiana
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 7 8
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.53 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Tau vs Terranuova Traiana
3:2
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Terranuova Traiana vs Tau
1:0
Feb 19, 2023 Serie D - Group E
Tau vs Terranuova Traiana
0:0
Oct 16, 2022 Serie D - Group E
Terranuova Traiana vs Tau
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tau Compare

Top Goalscorer Tordiglione N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Carcani T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Terranuova Traiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Iaiunese C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bruni P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tau 26 / 100
Terranuova Traiana 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tau Terranuova Traiana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Terranuova Traiana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tau scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Terranuova Traiana conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Tau stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tau VS Terranuova Traiana
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tau

(Home)
27 Sept
Tau
3 : 2
Rondinella
20 Sept
Ternana
3 : 0
Tau
16 Sept
Tau
3 : 2
Siena
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1
Tau
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
Page 1 of 6

Terranuova Traiana

(Away)
27 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
3 : 0
Terranuova Traiana
20 Sept
Terranuova Traiana
5 : 1
Flaminia
16 Sept
Terranuova Traiana
1 : 1
San Donato Tavarnelle
12 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 3
Terranuova Traiana
06 Sept
Terranuova Traiana
1 : 2
Sasso Marconi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)