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Tawa vs Napier City

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2014
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Napier City in this Chatham Cup 2014 tie, finishing 2-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Tawa
25%
Draws
35%
Napier City
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Tawa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Napier City have won more games recently than Tawa.
  • Model gives Napier City a 35% chance of winning this.
  • Napier City arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Napier City, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Tawa Clean Sheet 16%
Napier City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tawa Napier City
Matches Played 1 30
Wins 0 11
Draws 0 5
Losses 1 14
Goals Scored 2 2
Goals Conceded 4 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 1.49
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2014 Chatham Cup
Tawa vs Napier City
2:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tawa 19 / 100
Napier City 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tawa Napier City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Napier City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tawa scored in 100% of their last 1 games.

Napier City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 6.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Napier City has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Napier City
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 2.25
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Tawa

(Home)
29 Jun
Tawa
2 : 4
Napier City

Napier City

(Away)
26 Sept
Napier City
1 : 1
Miramar
16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Central United 3
Glenfield 1
Bay Olympic 2
Hamilton 3
Island Bay 3
Miramar 2
Tawa 2
Napier City 4
Ngongotaha AFC 1
Melville 2
Tauranga 0
Onehunga 2
Dunedin 1
Otago University 0
Coastal Spirit 0
Cashmere Technical 1
Quarter-finals
Central United 2
Hamilton 0
Island Bay 1
Napier City 4
Melville 1
Onehunga 2
Dunedin 0
Cashmere Technical 3
Semi-finals
Central United 2
Napier City 0
Onehunga 0
Cashmere Technical 4
Final
Central United 1
Cashmere Technical 2