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Team Wellington vs Hawke s Bay

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship
Our Tip

Match Events

68' Event
Randall J.
71' Event
Hailemariam N.
88' Event
Moreira J.

AI Match Summary

The Football Championship game between Team Wellington and Hawke s Bay finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Team Wellington.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Team Wellington
6%
Draws
4%
Hawke s Bay
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Team Wellington

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Team Wellington come out ahead of Hawke s Bay on wins alone.
  • Model gives Team Wellington a 90% chance of winning this.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Football Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Team Wellington Clean Sheet 12%
Hawke s Bay Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Team Wellington Hawke s Bay
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 18 7
Draws 7 4
Losses 3 17
Goals Scored 2.88 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2021 Football Championship
Hawke s Bay vs Team Wellington
2:2
Nov 21, 2020 Football Championship
Team Wellington vs Hawke s Bay
2:1
Mar 29, 2020 Football Championship
Hawke s Bay vs Team Wellington
0:0
Jan 12, 2020 Football Championship
Team Wellington vs Hawke s Bay
4:0
Feb 3, 2019 Football Championship
Hawke s Bay vs Team Wellington
3:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Team Wellington Compare

Top Goalscorer Hailemariam N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moreira J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

Hawke s Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Randall J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Team Wellington 83 / 100
Hawke s Bay 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Team Wellington Hawke s Bay

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TEA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Team Wellington scored in 93% of their last 28 games.

Hawke s Bay's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Team Wellington remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Team Wellington VS Hawke s Bay
2.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Auckland City1484227:1328
2Team Wellington1475235:2126
3Hamilton1455423:2120
4Eastern Suburbs1454525:2319
5Waitakere United1446428:2618
6Canterbury1453621:2418
7Hawke s Bay1441917:2913
8Wellington Phoenix 21424818:3710