Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Telde vs Union Sur Yaiza

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Ougri S.
15' Event
Morris C.
45' Event
Amadoz J.

AI Match Summary

Telde in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Telde.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Telde
35%
Draws
55%
Union Sur Yaiza
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Union Sur Yaiza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Union Sur Yaiza have won more games recently than Telde.
  • Union Sur Yaiza are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Telde Clean Sheet 15%
Union Sur Yaiza Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Telde Union Sur Yaiza
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 7
Draws 9 8
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 0.97 0.97
Goals Conceded 2.1 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs Telde
2:1
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Telde vs Union Sur Yaiza
2:1
Apr 1, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Telde vs Union Sur Yaiza
0:0
Nov 6, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs Telde
3:0
Feb 6, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Union Sur Yaiza vs Telde
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Telde Compare

Top Goalscorer Ougri S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Morris C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Union Sur Yaiza Compare

Top Goalscorer Amadoz J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Telde 10 / 100
Union Sur Yaiza 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Telde Union Sur Yaiza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Union Sur Yaiza Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Telde's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Union Sur Yaiza's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Telde has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Telde VS Union Sur Yaiza
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Telde

(Home)
08 May
Telde
0 : 3
Villa Santa Brigida
03 May
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 1
Telde
26 Apr
Telde
1 : 3
San Miguel
22 Apr
Herbania
1 : 1
Telde
19 Apr
Atletico Paso
1 : 1
Telde
Page 1 of 6

Union Sur Yaiza

(Away)
10 May
Panaderia
0 : 0
Union Sur Yaiza
03 May
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 1
Telde
26 Apr
CD Marino
0 : 0
Union Sur Yaiza
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0
Arucas
19 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
1 : 0
Mensajero
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Paso 34 18 13 3 51:19 67
2 UD San Fernando 34 19 9 6 49:23 66
3 Mensajero 34 18 9 7 51:31 63
4 Tamaraceite 34 19 6 9 56:36 63
5 Panaderia 34 15 10 9 47:33 55
6 Las Palmas C 34 15 9 10 58:42 54
7 Tenerife C 34 14 10 10 49:46 52
8 Villa Santa Brigida 34 15 5 14 42:35 50
9 Lanzarote 34 12 12 10 45:36 48
10 Real Union Tenerife 34 12 9 13 34:32 45
11 San Miguel 34 10 9 15 37:43 39
12 CD Marino 34 8 15 11 44:40 39
13 Union Sur Yaiza 34 10 8 16 33:43 38
14 San Bartolome 34 8 12 14 30:55 36
15 Arucas 34 7 12 15 31:47 33
16 Herbania 34 7 11 16 39:58 32
17 SD Tenisca 34 6 7 21 32:68 25
18 Telde 34 5 10 19 30:71 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)