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Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Zacatecas Mineros

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Garcia A.
41'
Perez M.
46'
Sub
Samano Salgado F. In: Guzman W.
Out: Samano Salgado F.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Tepatitlan de Morelos and Zacatecas Mineros finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Tepatitlan de Morelos
6%
Draws
4%
Zacatecas Mineros
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tepatitlan de Morelos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Zacatecas Mineros haven't matched Tepatitlan de Morelos's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Tepatitlan de Morelos's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 68%
Zacatecas Mineros Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tepatitlan de Morelos Zacatecas Mineros
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Zacatecas Mineros
1:1
May 1, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Zacatecas Mineros vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:1
Mar 8, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Zacatecas Mineros
4:0
Sep 27, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Zacatecas Mineros vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
3:3
Apr 20, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Zacatecas Mineros vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare

Top Goalscorer Escoto A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Zacatecas Mineros Compare

Top Goalscorer Avila J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tepatitlan de Morelos 95 / 100
Zacatecas Mineros 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tepatitlan de Morelos Zacatecas Mineros

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TEP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Zacatecas Mineros conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Tepatitlan de Morelos found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Tepatitlan de Morelos has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tepatitlan de Morelos VS Zacatecas Mineros
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Tepatitlan de Morelos2
Atlante2
Club Atletico Morelia2
Zacatecas Mineros3
Cancun2
Tapatio1
Atletico La Paz1
Jaiba Brava4
Semi-finals
Tepatitlan de Morelos2
Zacatecas Mineros2
Cancun2
Jaiba Brava3
Final
Tepatitlan de Morelos1
Jaiba Brava0