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Termez Surkhon vs Qizilqum

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Stadion Surkhon, Termez
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Dzebniauri T.
13'
Shaydulov B.
26'
Shukurillaev S.

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Termez Surkhon and Qizilqum finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Qizilqum.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Termez Surkhon
15%
Draws
48%
Qizilqum
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Qizilqum

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Qizilqum come out ahead of Termez Surkhon on wins alone.
  • 48% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Termez Surkhon Clean Sheet 22%
Qizilqum Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Termez Surkhon Qizilqum
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 5 4
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Super League
Termez Surkhon vs Qizilqum
0:1
Aug 3, 2025 Super League
Termez Surkhon vs Qizilqum
0:0
Mar 8, 2025 Super League
Qizilqum vs Termez Surkhon
2:0
Aug 12, 2024 Super League
Termez Surkhon vs Qizilqum
1:0
Mar 11, 2024 Super League
Qizilqum vs Termez Surkhon
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Termez Surkhon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Qizilqum Compare

Top Goalscorer Rakhmatullaev S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Termez Surkhon 32 / 100
Qizilqum 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Termez Surkhon Qizilqum

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Qizilqum Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Termez Surkhon scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Qizilqum has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Termez Surkhon stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Termez Surkhon VS Qizilqum
0.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
13% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Termez Surkhon

(Home)
20 Sept
Termez Surkhon
1 : 0
Kokand 1912
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1
Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Bunyodkor
0 : 1
Termez Surkhon
29 Aug
Termez Surkhon
0 : 1
PFK Guliston
25 Aug
Termez Surkhon
0 : 0
OKMK
Page 1 of 6

Qizilqum

(Away)
21 Sept
Xorazm Urganch
1 : 3
Qizilqum
10 Sept
Din. Samarkand
1 : 0
Qizilqum
05 Sept
Qizilqum
3 : 2
Buxoro
26 Aug
Qizilqum
1 : 0
Nasaf Qarshi
18 Aug
Sogdiana
2 : 1
Qizilqum
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftchi Fargona 22 16 3 3 50:17 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 14 7 1 39:20 49
3 Navbahor Namangan 22 13 5 4 39:21 44
4 Lok. Tashkent 22 10 5 7 36:28 35
5 OKMK 22 10 5 7 31:29 35
6 Nasaf Qarshi 22 9 7 6 33:21 34
7 Buxoro 22 10 4 8 32:29 34
8 Din. Samarkand 22 8 6 8 33:34 30
9 Andijan 22 9 3 10 27:28 30
10 Qizilqum 22 9 2 11 23:30 29
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 38:43 28
12 Termez Surkhon 22 7 5 10 19:28 26
13 Bunyodkor 22 7 1 14 22:36 22
14 Xorazm Urganch 22 5 6 11 18:32 21
15 Kokand 1912 22 4 8 10 19:30 20
16 Mashal Muborak 22 1 1 20 11:44 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)