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Ternana vs Follonica Gavorrano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E Stadio Libero Liberati, Terni
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Liurni L.
75' Event
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Ternana
35%
Draws
38%
Follonica Gavorrano
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Follonica Gavorrano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

27% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Follonica Gavorrano lately — more wins on the board than Ternana.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Ternana Clean Sheet 17%
Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ternana Follonica Gavorrano
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 9 10
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.25 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Ternana vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ternana Compare

Top Goalscorer Liurni L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Follonica Gavorrano Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ternana 30 / 100
Follonica Gavorrano 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ternana Follonica Gavorrano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ternana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ternana scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Follonica Gavorrano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Ternana remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ternana VS Follonica Gavorrano
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ternana

(Home)
04 Oct
Ternana
4 : 1
Montevarchi
27 Sept
Scandicci
0 : 0
Ternana
20 Sept
Ternana
3 : 0
Tau
16 Sept
Mezzolara
2 : 1
Ternana
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
Page 1 of 6

Follonica Gavorrano

(Away)
04 Oct
Flaminia
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
27 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 1
Sasso Marconi
20 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
0 : 2
Follonica Gavorrano
16 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Follonica Gavorrano 6 4 2 0 9:3 14
2 Prato 6 4 2 0 9:4 14
3 Lucchese 6 4 1 1 16:11 13
4 Tau 6 4 0 2 10:12 12
5 Scandicci 6 3 2 1 10:5 11
6 Flaminia 6 3 2 1 9:9 11
7 Seravezza Pozzi 6 3 1 2 14:5 10
8 Siena 6 3 1 2 13:8 10
9 Ternana 6 2 2 2 9:5 8
10 Terranuova Traiana 6 2 2 2 11:9 8
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
12 Montevarchi 6 2 1 3 9:11 7
13 Mezzolara 6 1 4 1 4:6 7
14 Rondinella 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
15 Sasso Marconi 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
16 SCD Progresso 6 1 0 5 4:15 3
17 Grassina 6 0 2 4 6:13 2
18 Ghiviborgo 6 0 1 5 3:10 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)