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Ternana vs Gubbio

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Libero Liberati, Terni
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Ghirardello T.
46'
Majer Z.
57'
Ferrante A.

AI Match Summary

Gubbio in this Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gubbio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Ternana
30%
Draws
47%
Gubbio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gubbio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Ternana haven't matched Gubbio's recent run of results.
  • Gubbio are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Ternana Clean Sheet 17%
Gubbio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ternana Gubbio
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 13
Draws 8 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.32 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Ternana vs Gubbio
0:1
Nov 2, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Gubbio vs Ternana
3:3
Jan 11, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Ternana vs Gubbio
2:1
Sep 7, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Gubbio vs Ternana
0:0
Sep 10, 2020 Club Friendly
Gubbio vs Ternana
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ternana Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Gubbio Compare

Top Goalscorer Ghirardello T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ternana 23 / 100
Gubbio 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ternana Gubbio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gubbio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ternana's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Gubbio conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Ternana remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ternana VS Gubbio
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.13
71% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 63%
14% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ternana

(Home)
20 Sept
Ternana
3 : 0
Tau
16 Sept
Mezzolara
2 : 1
Ternana
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
06 Sept
Prato
1 : 0
Ternana
03 May
Pianese
1 : 1
Ternana
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Gubbio

(Away)
20 Sept
Gubbio
0 : 2
Ostiamare
16 Sept
Pescara
1 : 1
Gubbio
12 Sept
Gubbio
3 : 1
Latina
05 Sept
Campobasso
2 : 4
Gubbio
02 Sept
Gubbio
5 : 0
Vis Pesaro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arezzo 36 24 8 4 64:24 80
2 Ascoli 36 23 8 5 63:23 77
3 Ravenna 36 22 7 7 50:30 73
4 Campobasso 36 17 10 9 49:37 59
5 Juventus U23 36 14 11 11 46:43 53
6 Pianese 36 11 17 8 37:34 50
7 Pineto 36 13 11 12 42:45 50
8 Gubbio 36 11 15 10 31:32 48
9 Ternana 36 14 11 11 44:40 48
10 Vis Pesaro 36 11 13 12 38:36 46
11 Livorno 36 12 7 17 39:51 43
12 Forli FC 36 10 10 16 41:52 40
13 Carpi 36 10 10 16 35:48 40
14 Perugia 36 8 14 14 38:44 38
15 Guidonia 1937 36 8 14 14 30:36 38
16 Sambenedettese 36 8 13 15 30:37 37
17 Sassari Torres 36 6 18 12 32:45 36
18 Bra 36 6 14 16 37:54 32
19 US Pontedera 36 3 11 22 27:62 20
20 Rimini 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)