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Ternana vs Gubbio

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Libero Liberati, Terni
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Ghirardello T.
46'
Majer Z.
57'
Ferrante A.

AI Match Summary

Gubbio in this Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gubbio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Ternana
30%
Draws
41%
Gubbio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gubbio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Medium Confidence
  • Gubbio haven't matched Ternana's recent run of results.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Ternana Clean Sheet 20%
Gubbio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ternana Gubbio
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 8 10
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Ternana vs Gubbio
0:1
Nov 2, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Gubbio vs Ternana
3:3
Jan 11, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Ternana vs Gubbio
2:1
Sep 7, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Gubbio vs Ternana
0:0
Sep 10, 2020 Club Friendly
Gubbio vs Ternana
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ternana Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Gubbio Compare

Top Goalscorer Ghirardello T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ternana 32 / 100
Gubbio 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ternana Gubbio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GUB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ternana's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Ternana stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Gubbio conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Ternana VS Gubbio
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ternana

(Home)
03 May
Pianese
1 : 1
Ternana
26 Apr
Ternana
1 : 3
Pianese
18 Apr
Bra
1 : 2
Ternana
12 Apr
Ternana
2 : 2
Perugia
08 Apr
Juventus U23
2 : 1
Ternana
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Gubbio

(Away)
29 Jul
Gubbio
2 : 0
Sporting Trestina
22 Jul
Fiorentina
1 : 0
Gubbio
03 May
Pineto
2 : 1
Gubbio
26 Apr
Gubbio
2 : 0
Pineto
18 Apr
Sassari Torres
0 : 0
Gubbio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arezzo 36 24 8 4 64:24 80
2 Ascoli 36 23 8 5 63:23 77
3 Ravenna 36 22 7 7 50:30 73
4 Campobasso 36 17 10 9 49:37 59
5 Juventus U23 36 14 11 11 46:43 53
6 Pianese 36 11 17 8 37:34 50
7 Pineto 36 13 11 12 42:45 50
8 Gubbio 36 11 15 10 31:32 48
9 Ternana 36 14 11 11 44:40 48
10 Vis Pesaro 36 11 13 12 38:36 46
11 Livorno 36 12 7 17 39:51 43
12 Forli FC 36 10 10 16 41:52 40
13 Carpi 36 10 10 16 35:48 40
14 Perugia 36 8 14 14 38:44 38
15 Guidonia 1937 36 8 14 14 30:36 38
16 Sambenedettese 36 8 13 15 30:37 37
17 Sassari Torres 36 6 18 12 32:45 36
18 Bra 36 6 14 16 37:54 32
19 US Pontedera 36 3 11 22 27:62 20
20 Rimini 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)