Sport Picks
Match Events
28'
28'
Calapai L.
41'
41'
Capuano M.
46'
46'
Sub
Calapai L. In: Angella G.
Out: Calapai L.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
35%
29%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ternana
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Ternana lately — more wins on the board than Perugia.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Ternana Clean Sheet 16%
Perugia Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ternana | Perugia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 12 |
| Losses | 9 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.63 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.63 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 12, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Ternana vs Perugia
2:2
Dec 7, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Ternana
1:2
Mar 23, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Ternana vs Perugia
0:0
Nov 10, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Ternana
0:0
Feb 18, 2023 Serie B
Perugia vs Ternana
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ternana Compare
Top Goalscorer Capuano M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ferrante A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Perugia Compare
Top Goalscorer Bacchin L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Montevago D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ternana 31 / 100
Perugia 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ternana Perugia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Perugia has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.
Attacking prowess: Ternana scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Recent resilience: Ternana stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ternana VS Perugia
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ternana
(Home) 03 May
Pianese
1 : 1 Ternana
26 Apr
Ternana
1 : 3 Pianese
18 Apr
Bra
1 : 2 Ternana
12 Apr
Ternana
2 : 2 Perugia
08 Apr
Juventus U23
2 : 1 Ternana
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Ternana
1 : 3 Pianese
12 Apr
Ternana
2 : 2 Perugia
20 Mar
Ternana
1 : 1 Sambenedettese
08 Mar
Ternana
0 : 1 Gubbio
01 Mar
Ternana
2 : 4 Campobasso
Page 1 of 3
Perugia
(Away) 02 Aug
Perugia
1 : 1 Grosseto
26 Apr
Forli FC
1 : 1 Perugia
18 Apr
Perugia
0 : 1 Campobasso
12 Apr
Ternana
2 : 2 Perugia
04 Apr
Perugia
2 : 2 Juventus U23
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Forli FC
1 : 1 Perugia
12 Apr
Ternana
2 : 2 Perugia
29 Mar
Vis Pesaro
0 : 1 Perugia
15 Mar
Arezzo
1 : 1 Perugia
04 Mar
Livorno
1 : 2 Perugia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arezzo | 36 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 64:24 | 80 |
| 2 | Ascoli | 36 | 23 | 8 | 5 | 63:23 | 77 |
| 3 | Ravenna | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 50:30 | 73 |
| 4 | Campobasso | 36 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 49:37 | 59 |
| 5 | Juventus U23 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 46:43 | 53 |
| 6 | Pianese | 36 | 11 | 17 | 8 | 37:34 | 50 |
| 7 | Pineto | 36 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 42:45 | 50 |
| 8 | Gubbio | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 31:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Ternana | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 44:40 | 48 |
| 10 | Vis Pesaro | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 38:36 | 46 |
| 11 | Livorno | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 39:51 | 43 |
| 12 | Forli FC | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 41:52 | 40 |
| 13 | Carpi | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 35:48 | 40 |
| 14 | Perugia | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 38:44 | 38 |
| 15 | Guidonia 1937 | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 30:36 | 38 |
| 16 | Sambenedettese | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 30:37 | 37 |
| 17 | Sassari Torres | 36 | 6 | 18 | 12 | 32:45 | 36 |
| 18 | Bra | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 37:54 | 32 |
| 19 | US Pontedera | 36 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 27:62 | 20 |
| 20 | Rimini | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)
