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Stadium Background

Ternana vs Perugia

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Libero Liberati, Terni
Ternana Logo

Ternana

2 - 2
FT
Perugia Logo

Perugia

Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Calapai L.
41' Event
Capuano M.
46'
Sub
Calapai L. In: Angella G.
Out: Calapai L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Ternana
30%
Draws
54%
Perugia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Perugia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ternana lately — more wins on the board than Perugia.
  • Model gives Ternana a 16% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Ternana Clean Sheet 68%
Perugia Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ternana Perugia
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 9 8
Draws 8 10
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.26 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.22
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Ternana vs Perugia
2:2
Dec 7, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Ternana
1:2
Mar 23, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Ternana vs Perugia
0:0
Nov 10, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Ternana
0:0
Feb 18, 2023 Serie B
Perugia vs Ternana
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ternana Compare

Top Goalscorer Capuano M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferrante A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Perugia Compare

Top Goalscorer Bacchin L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Montevago D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ternana 59 / 100
Perugia 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ternana Perugia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ternana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Perugia has conceded goals in 85% of their last 27 outings.

Attacking prowess: Ternana scored in 74% of their last 27 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Ternana stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ternana VS Perugia
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ternana

(Home)
16 Sept
Mezzolara
2 : 1
Ternana
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
06 Sept
Prato
1 : 0
Ternana
03 May
Pianese
1 : 1
Ternana
26 Apr
Ternana
1 : 3
Pianese
Page 1 of 6

Perugia

(Away)
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
13 Sept
Ravenna
3 : 0
Perugia
06 Sept
Perugia
2 : 1
Pineto
30 Aug
Vis Pesaro
2 : 2
Perugia
23 Aug
Perugia
1 : 0
Ostiamare
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arezzo 36 24 8 4 64:24 80
2 Ascoli 36 23 8 5 63:23 77
3 Ravenna 36 22 7 7 50:30 73
4 Campobasso 36 17 10 9 49:37 59
5 Juventus U23 36 14 11 11 46:43 53
6 Pianese 36 11 17 8 37:34 50
7 Pineto 36 13 11 12 42:45 50
8 Gubbio 36 11 15 10 31:32 48
9 Ternana 36 14 11 11 44:40 48
10 Vis Pesaro 36 11 13 12 38:36 46
11 Livorno 36 12 7 17 39:51 43
12 Forli FC 36 10 10 16 41:52 40
13 Carpi 36 10 10 16 35:48 40
14 Perugia 36 8 14 14 38:44 38
15 Guidonia 1937 36 8 14 14 30:36 38
16 Sambenedettese 36 8 13 15 30:37 37
17 Sassari Torres 36 6 18 12 32:45 36
18 Bra 36 6 14 16 37:54 32
19 US Pontedera 36 3 11 22 27:62 20
20 Rimini 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)