Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Thionville vs Caen

France France

Ligue 3 Stadium Plaine, Thionville
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
El Khoumisti F.
Assist: Bolumbu D.
16' Event
Hafid M.
21' Event
Bouhmidi K.
Assist: Luvualu D.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 3 game between Thionville and Caen finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Thionville.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Thionville
20%
Draws
40%
Caen
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Thionville carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Caen a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Thionville Clean Sheet 10%
Caen Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thionville Caen
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 7 13
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.96 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Ligue 3
Thionville vs Caen
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Thionville Compare

Top Goalscorer Bouhmidi K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Aljic M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Caen Compare

Top Goalscorer El Khoumisti F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hafid M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thionville 26 / 100
Caen 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thionville Caen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Thionville scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 7.00 goals.

Caen's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Thionville has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Thionville VS Caen
1.63 Goals Scored 2.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Thionville

(Home)
14 Aug
Thionville
4 : 3
Caen
07 Aug
Aubagne FC
0 : 3
Thionville
01 Aug
Saarbrucken
2 : 1
Thionville
18 Jul
Thionville
2 : 2
Nancy
11 Jul
Progres Niedercorn
0 : 5
Thionville
Page 1 of 6

Caen

(Away)
14 Aug
Thionville
4 : 3
Caen
07 Aug
Caen
4 : 0
Valenciennes
31 Jul
Caen
1 : 1
Dieppe
25 Jul
Caen
4 : 1
Al Wakra
18 Jul
Caen
4 : 2
Laval
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thionville 3 3 0 0 9:3 9
2 Rouen 3 2 1 0 5:1 7
3 La Roche Vendee 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
4 Caen 3 2 0 1 8:4 6
5 Orleans 3 2 0 1 5:2 6
6 Le Puy-en-Velay 3 2 0 1 3:1 6
7 Versailles 3 2 0 1 6:5 6
8 Paris 13 Atletico 3 2 0 1 3:3 6
9 Concarneau 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
10 Cannes 3 0 3 0 2:2 3
11 Villefranche 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
12 Bastia 3 1 0 2 3:5 3
13 Valenciennes 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
14 Bourg Peronnas 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
15 Fleury-Merogis 3 0 2 1 1:3 2
16 Amiens SC 3 0 1 2 0:2 1
17 Quevilly 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
18 Aubagne FC 3 0 0 3 0:5 0
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)