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Stadium Background

Thionville vs La Roche Vendee - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 3 Stadium Plaine, Thionville
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Kalambayi Mukuta S.
47'
Vrignon M.
48'
Diarra B.

AI Match Summary

La Roche Vendee in this Ligue 3 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored La Roche Vendee.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Thionville
35%
Draws
55%
La Roche Vendee
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: La Roche Vendee

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to La Roche Vendee lately — more wins on the board than Thionville.
  • Model gives La Roche Vendee a 55% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Thionville Clean Sheet 16%
La Roche Vendee Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thionville La Roche Vendee
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 18
Draws 9 9
Losses 9 1
Goals Scored 1.69 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.52 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Ligue 3
Thionville vs La Roche Vendee
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Thionville Compare

Top Goalscorer Tubio K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

La Roche Vendee Compare

Top Goalscorer Araujo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thionville 15 / 100
La Roche Vendee 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thionville La Roche Vendee

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick La Roche Vendee Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Thionville scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

La Roche Vendee let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Thionville stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Thionville VS La Roche Vendee
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Thionville

(Home)
03 Oct
Le Puy-en-Velay
1 : 0
Thionville
26 Sept
Thionville
1 : 2
La Roche Vendee
19 Sept
Fleury 91
1 : 1
Thionville
12 Sept
Thionville
0 : 4
Rouen
05 Sept
Concarneau
2 : 2
Thionville
Page 1 of 6

La Roche Vendee

(Away)
03 Oct
La Roche Vendee
3 : 1
Aubagne FC
26 Sept
Thionville
1 : 2
La Roche Vendee
19 Sept
La Roche Vendee
3 : 2
Valenciennes
12 Sept
Villefranche
0 : 0
La Roche Vendee
05 Sept
La Roche Vendee
1 : 1
Quevilly
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 9 6 3 0 15:8 21
2 Rouen 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Concarneau 9 4 4 1 12:8 16
4 Versailles 9 5 1 3 13:12 16
5 Amiens SC 9 4 3 2 12:3 15
6 Cannes 9 3 6 0 11:4 15
7 Caen 9 5 0 4 17:12 15
8 Le Puy-en-Velay 9 4 1 4 11:9 13
9 Thionville 9 3 3 3 14:14 12
10 Fleury 91 9 3 3 3 15:12 12
11 Paris 13 Atletico 9 3 3 3 7:9 12
12 Bastia 9 3 2 4 7:11 11
13 Quevilly 9 2 4 3 8:12 10
14 Orleans 9 2 3 4 7:11 9
15 Valenciennes 9 2 2 5 9:14 8
16 Aubagne FC 9 2 1 6 6:12 7
17 Bourg Peronnas 9 1 2 6 5:15 5
18 Villefranche 9 1 1 7 7:22 4
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)