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Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Thorsvollur
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Thor Akureyri play IBV Vestmannaeyjar in the Besta deild karla. It looks like a close match. Recently, Thor Akureyri averaged 2.13 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. IBV Vestmannaeyjar averaged 1.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded. In past meetings, Thor Akureyri won 0, IBV Vestmannaeyjar won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 14, 2026 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Thor Akureyri and 2.31 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar. This points to a Thor Akureyri double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Thor Akureyri
20%
Draws
37%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Thor Akureyri

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Thor Akureyri picked up more points recently compared to IBV Vestmannaeyjar.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 2.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 89%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Thor Akureyri Clean Sheet 10%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 80%
Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thor Akureyri IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 14 8
Draws 4 7
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 2.13 1.78
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.78
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 Besta deild karla
Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1:4
Jul 27, 2024 Division 1
Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0:3
May 20, 2024 Division 1
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Thor Akureyri
1:1
Aug 31, 2021 Division 1
Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0:1
Jun 14, 2021 Division 1
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Thor Akureyri
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Thor Akureyri Compare

Top Goalscorer Hlynsson A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

IBV Vestmannaeyjar Compare

Top Goalscorer Gunnarsson B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hardarson S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thor Akureyri 41 / 100
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thor Akureyri IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Thor Akureyri or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Thor Akureyri attacking → ← attacking IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Thor Akureyri scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar let in goals in 89% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Thor Akureyri went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 31
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
2.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Vikingur Reykjavik14131048:940
2KR Reykjavik1492348:3429
3Fram1282231:2426
4Breidablik1254330:2419
5Valur1361624:2619
6Stjarnan1443728:3115
7Keflavik1243517:2315
8Akranes1243516:2315
9IBV Vestmannaeyjar1233621:2612
10KA Akureyri1331919:2810
11Hafnarfjordur1315718:318
12Thor Akureyri1322914:358