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Throttur W vs Hafnarfjordur W

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Besta deild Women AVIS vollurinn
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Throttur W averaging 1.5 xG at home and Hafnarfjordur W producing 2.3 xG on their travels. Hafnarfjordur W will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Throttur W to find a way to break them down. History suggests plenty of goals when these two play. Over 2.5 goals seems highly likely based on recent attacking form. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Throttur W
15%
Draws
40%
Hafnarfjordur W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Throttur W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Throttur W picked up more points recently compared to Hafnarfjordur W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 2.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 75%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 75%
Over 3.5 Goals 45%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Throttur W Clean Sheet 10%
Hafnarfjordur W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Throttur W Hafnarfjordur W
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 19 19
Draws 3 4
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 2.03 2.85
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

30.04.26 Besta deild Women
Throttur W vs Hafnarfjordur W
2:1
21.02.26 League Cup Women
Throttur W vs Hafnarfjordur W
3:2
05.10.25 Besta deild Women
Hafnarfjordur W vs Throttur W
4:0
28.08.25 Besta deild Women
Hafnarfjordur W vs Throttur W
3:0
17.05.25 Besta deild Women
Throttur W vs Hafnarfjordur W
4:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Throttur W

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Hafnarfjordur W

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Throttur W Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
9 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
7 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.38
Avg xA / game 0.92

Hafnarfjordur W Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
16 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
12 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.45
Avg xA / game 1.64

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Hafnarfjordur W • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Throttur W • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Hafnarfjordur W • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Throttur W • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Throttur W 43 / 100
Hafnarfjordur W 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Throttur W Hafnarfjordur W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Throttur W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.7%
1.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Throttur W will likely press early to force mistakes.

Throttur W 59%
Hafnarfjordur W 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Hafnarfjordur W should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Throttur W 54%
Hafnarfjordur W 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Throttur W 51%
Hafnarfjordur W 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Throttur W to push more players wide.

Throttur W 56%
Hafnarfjordur W 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Throttur W 51%
Hafnarfjordur W 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Throttur W 62%
Hafnarfjordur W 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Throttur W attacking → ← attacking Hafnarfjordur W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Throttur W have scored in 94% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Hafnarfjordur W concede most goals (42%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 19 shots per game, well above the league median.

Throttur W are unbeaten in 5 straight matches when scoring first.

Hafnarfjordur W have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 8 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Throttur W wants a European spot, while Hafnarfjordur W is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

60 Points in last 5 61
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2