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Thunder Bay Chill vs Bavarian United SC

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USL League Two 2024
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AI Match Summary

The USL League Two 2024 game between Thunder Bay Chill and Bavarian United SC finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Thunder Bay Chill.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Thunder Bay Chill
33%
Draws
27%
Bavarian United SC
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Thunder Bay Chill

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Bavarian United SC haven't matched Thunder Bay Chill's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Thunder Bay Chill a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Thunder Bay Chill have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Thunder Bay Chill Clean Sheet 17%
Bavarian United SC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thunder Bay Chill Bavarian United SC
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 22 7
Draws 4 5
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 2 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2024 USL League Two
Bavarian United SC vs Thunder Bay Chill
1:3
May 31, 2024 USL League Two
Thunder Bay Chill vs Bavarian United SC
4:2
Jul 12, 2023 USL League Two
Thunder Bay Chill vs Bavarian United SC
4:1
Jun 18, 2023 USL League Two
Bavarian United SC vs Thunder Bay Chill
1:5

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thunder Bay Chill 39 / 100
Bavarian United SC 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thunder Bay Chill Bavarian United SC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TBC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Thunder Bay Chill scored in 94% of their last 32 games.

Bavarian United SC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 5.25 goals when they meet.

Thunder Bay Chill went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Thunder Bay Chill VS Bavarian United SC
2 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%