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Tigres UANL U21 vs Toluca U21 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U21
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tigres UANL U21 host Toluca U21 in the Liga MX U21. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Tigres UANL U21 have averaged 1.3 scored and 1.47 conceded recently, against Toluca U21's 1.97 scored and 1.24 conceded. Past meetings favor Tigres UANL U21 slightly — 1-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 17, 2026, ending 3:2. The numbers (0.75 xG vs 1.94) point toward Toluca U21. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Tigres UANL U21
15%
Draws
61%
Toluca U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Toluca U21 have won more games recently than Tigres UANL U21.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on Toluca U21 taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Tigres UANL U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tigres UANL U21 Toluca U21
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 20
Draws 0 0
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 1.3 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Liga MX U21
Tigres UANL U21 vs Toluca U21
3:2
Jul 26, 2025 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Tigres UANL U21
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tigres UANL U21 18 / 100
Toluca U21 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tigres UANL U21 Toluca U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca U21 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Tigres UANL U21 scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Toluca U21 let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Tigres UANL U21 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tigres UANL U21 VS Toluca U21
1 Goals Scored 1.88
2 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tigres UANL U21

(Home)
26 Sept
Tigres UANL U21
2 : 1
Puebla U21
18 Sept
Juarez U21
2 : 1
Tigres UANL U21
13 Sept
Monterrey U21
1 : 2
Tigres UANL U21
05 Sept
Tigres UANL U21
0 : 1
Necaxa U21
29 Aug
Santos Laguna U21
1 : 0
Tigres UANL U21
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Toluca U21

(Away)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul U21
2 : 3
Toluca U21
20 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Santos Laguna U21
15 Sept
Puebla U21
0 : 1
Toluca U21
12 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Atlas U21
30 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Juarez U21
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toluca U21 10 10 0 0 20:7 27
2 Club Leon U21 10 9 0 1 19:9 24
3 Club Tijuana U21 10 7 0 3 18:12 21
4 Guadalajara Chivas U21 10 6 0 4 16:14 18
5 Puebla U21 10 5 0 5 11:9 17
6 Club America U21 10 5 0 5 14:14 15
7 Santos Laguna U21 10 5 0 5 10:12 15
8 Monterrey U21 9 5 0 4 19:13 14
9 Necaxa U21 10 5 0 5 11:15 14
10 Atletico San Luis U21 10 5 0 5 17:19 13
11 Pachuca U21 10 3 0 7 10:15 13
12 Atlante U21 10 4 0 6 14:20 13
13 Cruz Azul U21 10 5 0 5 18:16 12
14 Atlas U21 10 3 0 7 13:13 12
15 UNAM Pumas U21 10 3 0 7 10:14 12
16 Juarez U21 10 4 0 6 9:12 11
17 Tigres UANL U21 10 3 0 7 10:19 10
18 Queretaro U21 9 2 0 7 10:16 6
Promotion - Liga MX U21 (Apertura - Play Offs)