Sport Picks

Asia

Asian Cup TIO Stadium

Timor-Leste

1 - 0

Maldives

Our Tip

Match Events

15'

Freitas J. P.

30'

Sifaau H.

45'

Freitas J. P.

Assist: Freitas Gali

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Asian Cup game between Timor-Leste and Maldives finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Timor-Leste.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Timor-Leste

33%

Draws

27%

Maldives

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Timor-Leste

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Maldives come out ahead of Timor-Leste on wins alone.
Timor-Leste are the model's pick here, at 40%.
Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%

Timor-Leste Clean Sheet 68%

Maldives Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Timor-Leste	Maldives
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	7	9
Draws	2	4
Losses	21	17
Goals Scored	0.88	0.75
Goals Conceded	2.38	2.13
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.38	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Asian Cup

Maldives vs Timor-Leste

Possession: 43% - 57% Cards: 3 - 0

2:1

Jun 10, 2025 Asian Cup

Timor-Leste vs Maldives

Possession: 46% - 53% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Timor-Leste Compare

Top Goalscorer Freitas J. P.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Maldives Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Timor-Leste 50 / 100

Maldives 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Timor-Leste Maldives

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TIM Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Timor-Leste scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Maldives's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Maldives registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Timor-Leste VS Maldives

0.88 Goals Scored 0.75

2.38 Goals Conceded 2.13

75% Over 1.5 88%

75% Over 2.5 63%

50% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tajikistan	6	4	2	0	14:3	14
2	Philippines	6	4	2	0	16:6	14
3	Maldives	6	1	0	5	3:13	3
4	Timor-Leste	6	1	0	5	4:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Yemen	6	4	2	0	20:1	14
2	Lebanon	6	4	1	1	14:2	13
3	Bhutan	6	1	1	4	4:16	4
4	Brunei	6	1	0	5	3:22	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Singapore	6	4	2	0	8:4	14
2	Hong Kong	6	2	2	2	8:8	8
3	Bangladesh	6	1	2	3	6:8	5
4	India	6	1	2	3	4:6	5

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Thailand	6	5	1	16:5	15
2	Turkmenistan	6	4	2	11:7	12
3	Sri Lanka	6	3	3	8:9	9
4	Chinese Taipei	6	0	6	5:19	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Syria	6	6	0	0	21:2	18
2	Myanmar	6	4	0	2	8:11	12
3	Afghanistan	6	0	2	4	4:11	2
4	Pakistan	6	0	2	4	2:11	2

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vietnam	6	6	0	17:2	18
2	Malaysia	6	3	3	10:10	9
3	Laos	6	2	4	4:16	6
4	Nepal	6	1	5	5:8	3