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Tirol vs Sturm Graz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Austria Austria

Bundesliga Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Innsbruck
Tirol Logo

Tirol

1 - 1
FT
Sturm Graz Logo

Sturm Graz

Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Seidl S.
18'
Hodl J.
19'
Soglo E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Bundesliga game between Tirol and Sturm Graz finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Tirol
20%
Draws
40%
Sturm Graz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Sturm Graz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Tirol a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Tirol Clean Sheet 68%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tirol Sturm Graz
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 14
Draws 6 9
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 2.11 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Bundesliga
Tirol vs Sturm Graz
1:1
Feb 14, 2026 Bundesliga
Tirol vs Sturm Graz
1:0
Dec 3, 2025 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Tirol
1:3
Dec 7, 2024 Bundesliga
Tirol vs Sturm Graz
0:3
Aug 31, 2024 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Tirol
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tirol Compare

Top Goalscorer Olakigbe M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Sturm Graz Compare

Top Goalscorer Wlodarczyk S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tirol 95 / 100
Sturm Graz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tirol Sturm Graz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tirol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 6:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Tirol scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Sturm Graz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Tirol stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tirol VS Sturm Graz
2.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tirol

(Home)
01 Oct
Regensburg
0 : 6
Tirol
24 Sept
FC Liefering
0 : 1
Tirol
18 Sept
Rapid Vienna
3 : 0
Tirol
13 Sept
Tirol
2 : 2
Hartberg
05 Sept
SV Leithaprodersdorf
0 : 4
Tirol
Page 1 of 6

Sturm Graz

(Away)
02 Oct
Sturm Graz
3 : 1
Floridsdorfer AC Wien
20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
16 Sept
Sturm Graz
0 : 0
Rennes
13 Sept
Sturm Graz
2 : 1
LASK Linz
05 Sept
ASK Voitsberg
1 : 4
Sturm Graz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rapid Vienna 7 6 0 1 21:7 18
2 Salzburg 7 5 2 0 18:4 17
3 LASK Linz 7 5 1 1 19:7 16
4 Sturm Graz 7 3 2 2 8:9 11
5 Ried 7 2 2 3 11:12 8
6 Hartberg 7 2 2 3 10:13 8
7 Tirol 7 2 2 3 9:12 8
8 A. Lustenau 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
9 Grazer AK 7 2 2 3 6:16 8
10 Austria Vienna 7 2 1 4 7:13 7
11 Wolfsberger AC 7 1 2 4 7:13 5
12 Altach 7 1 0 6 5:12 3
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation Group)