Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tirol vs Sturm Graz

Austria Austria

Bundesliga Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Innsbruck
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Seidl S.
18'
Hodl J.
19'
Soglo E.

AI Match Summary

The Bundesliga game between Tirol and Sturm Graz finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Tirol
30%
Draws
51%
Sturm Graz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sturm Graz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Medium Confidence
  • Sturm Graz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Tirol a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Tirol Clean Sheet 10%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tirol Sturm Graz
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 8 14
Draws 8 10
Losses 12 3
Goals Scored 1.25 3.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 3.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Bundesliga
Tirol vs Sturm Graz
1:1
Feb 14, 2026 Bundesliga
Tirol vs Sturm Graz
1:0
Dec 3, 2025 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Tirol
1:3
Dec 7, 2024 Bundesliga
Tirol vs Sturm Graz
0:3
Aug 31, 2024 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Tirol
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tirol Compare

Top Goalscorer Olakigbe M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sturm Graz Compare

Top Goalscorer Wlodarczyk S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.95
Avg xA / game 1.81

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tirol 34 / 100
Sturm Graz 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tirol Sturm Graz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Tirol scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Recent resilience: Tirol stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Sturm Graz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 27 matches.

Scoring Trends

Tirol VS Sturm Graz
1.25 Goals Scored 3.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Tirol

(Home)
01 Aug
Tirol
1 : 1
Sturm Graz
24 Jul
Wieselburg
0 : 6
Tirol
17 Jul
Hertha Berlin
3 : 2
Tirol
10 Jul
Tirol
1 : 2
Polissya Zhytomyr
04 Jul
Tirol
0 : 0
Gornik Zabrze
Page 1 of 6

Sturm Graz

(Away)
01 Aug
Tirol
1 : 1
Sturm Graz
28 Jul
Hearts
0 : 2
Sturm Graz
24 Jul
Seekirchen
0 : 3
Sturm Graz
21 Jul
Sturm Graz
4 : 0
Hearts
15 Jul
Sturm Graz
1 : 0
Pogon Szczecin
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wolfsberger AC 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
2 LASK Linz 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
3 Rapid Vienna 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
4 Salzburg 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
5 Ried 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
6 Sturm Graz 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
7 Tirol 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
8 A. Lustenau 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
9 Hartberg 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
10 Altach 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
11 Grazer AK 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
12 Austria Vienna 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation Group)