Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Desportivo Moncao

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tirsense play Desportivo Moncao in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tirsense averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Desportivo Moncao averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. In past meetings, Tirsense won 3, Desportivo Moncao won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 4, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Tirsense and 0.94 for Desportivo Moncao. This points to a Tirsense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%

Tirsense

30%

Draws

18%

Desportivo Moncao

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tirsense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence

Tirsense picked up more points recently compared to Desportivo Moncao.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 0.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 47%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

Tirsense Clean Sheet 24%

Desportivo Moncao Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tirsense	Desportivo Moncao
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	11	5
Draws	13	6
Losses	6	19
Goals Scored	1.23	0.97
Goals Conceded	1.03	1.93
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Tirsense vs Desportivo Moncao

Possession: 43% - 60% Cards: 1 - 1

1:0

Dec 7, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Desportivo Moncao vs Tirsense

Possession: 50% - 55% Cards: 2 - 3

1:1

Jan 22, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Desportivo Moncao vs Tirsense

Possession: 41% - 48% Cards: 0 - 2

1:4

Sep 24, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Tirsense vs Desportivo Moncao

Possession: 46% - 41% Cards: 1 - 1

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tirsense Compare

Top Goalscorer Figa

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Desportivo Moncao Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tirsense 52 / 100

Desportivo Moncao 18 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tirsense Desportivo Moncao

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tirsense or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +18%

2.27

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.7%

2.44

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tirsense attacking → ← attacking Desportivo Moncao

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tirsense scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Desportivo Moncao let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Tirsense went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Desportivo Moncao lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 21

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	GD Braganca	26	14	6	6	41:29	48
2	SC Vianense	26	14	6	6	49:28	48
3	Brito	26	14	4	8	36:24	46
4	Celoricense	26	11	9	6	35:23	42
5	AD Limianos	26	11	8	7	35:32	41
6	Tirsense	26	9	13	4	31:22	40
7	Camacha	26	9	9	8	34:26	36
8	Chaves B	26	9	9	8	40:29	36
9	Machico	26	10	6	10	28:30	36
10	Sao Martinho	26	10	4	12	22:31	34
11	SC Mirandela	26	10	2	14	21:29	32
12	Vilaverdense FC	26	4	9	13	15:31	21
13	CD Ribeira Brava	26	4	8	14	20:46	20
14	Desportivo Moncao	26	4	5	17	26:53	17