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Tirsense vs Desportivo Moncao

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

77' Event
Figa

AI Match Summary

Tirsense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tirsense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Tirsense
15%
Draws
0%
Desportivo Moncao
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tirsense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Tirsense have won more games recently than Desportivo Moncao.
  • Model gives Tirsense a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Tirsense here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Tirsense Clean Sheet 68%
Desportivo Moncao Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tirsense Desportivo Moncao
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 5
Draws 11 6
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.23 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Tirsense vs Desportivo Moncao
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Desportivo Moncao vs Tirsense
1:1
Jan 22, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Desportivo Moncao vs Tirsense
1:4
Sep 24, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Tirsense vs Desportivo Moncao
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tirsense Compare

Top Goalscorer Figa
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Desportivo Moncao Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tirsense 95 / 100
Desportivo Moncao 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tirsense Desportivo Moncao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tirsense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Desportivo Moncao let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Difficult form: Desportivo Moncao registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Tirsense found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Tirsense VS Desportivo Moncao
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.25 Goals Conceded 2.63
25% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Tirsense

(Home)
19 Sept
Mafra
3 : 2
Tirsense
13 Sept
Tirsense
2 : 0
Brito
06 Sept
Celoricense
2 : 1
Tirsense
23 Aug
Tirsense
3 : 0
Vinhais
16 Aug
Rebordosa
0 : 1
Tirsense
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Desportivo Moncao

(Away)
18 Apr
Sao Martinho
3 : 1
Desportivo Moncao
12 Apr
Desportivo Moncao
0 : 5
SC Vianense
04 Apr
Tirsense
1 : 0
Desportivo Moncao
22 Mar
Desportivo Moncao
1 : 4
Chaves B
15 Mar
AD Limianos
4 : 1
Desportivo Moncao
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 GD Braganca 26 14 6 6 41:29 48
2 SC Vianense 26 14 6 6 49:28 48
3 Brito 26 14 4 8 36:24 46
4 Celoricense 26 11 9 6 35:23 42
5 AD Limianos 26 11 8 7 35:32 41
6 Tirsense 26 9 13 4 31:22 40
7 Camacha 26 9 9 8 34:26 36
8 Chaves B 26 9 9 8 40:29 36
9 Machico 26 10 6 10 28:30 36
10 Sao Martinho 26 10 4 12 22:31 34
11 SC Mirandela 26 10 2 14 21:29 32
12 Vilaverdense FC 26 4 9 13 15:31 21
13 CD Ribeira Brava 26 4 8 14 20:46 20
14 Desportivo Moncao 26 4 5 17 26:53 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)