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Tirsense vs Ponte da Barca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A Estadio Abel Alves de Figueiredo, Santo Tirso
Sun, Dec 6, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tirsense host Ponte da Barca in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group A. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Tirsense have averaged 1.36 scored and 1.03 conceded recently, against Ponte da Barca's 0.72 scored and 1.66 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (1.50 - 1.25) back Tirsense to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Tirsense
15%
Draws
46%
Ponte da Barca
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ponte da Barca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Tirsense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Tirsense a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Tirsense Clean Sheet 19%
Ponte da Barca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tirsense Ponte da Barca
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 14 6
Draws 9 3
Losses 10 20
Goals Scored 1.36 0.72
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tirsense 40 / 100
Ponte da Barca 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tirsense Ponte da Barca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tirsense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Tirsense scored in 82% of their last 33 outings.

Defensive concern: Ponte da Barca conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Tirsense remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Ponte da Barca's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Tirsense VS Ponte da Barca
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tirsense

(Home)
01 Nov
GD Braganca
0 : 1
Tirsense
25 Oct
Tirsense
3 : 5
Maia Lidador
11 Oct
Braga B
3 : 2
Tirsense
19 Sept
Mafra
3 : 2
Tirsense
13 Sept
Tirsense
2 : 0
Brito
Page 1 of 7

Ponte da Barca

(Away)
01 Nov
Ponte da Barca
2 : 1
Vinhais
25 Oct
CDC Montalegre
0 : 1
Ponte da Barca
11 Oct
Ponte da Barca
0 : 0
Rebordosa
20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2
Amarante FC
13 Sept
GD Braganca
3 : 0
Ponte da Barca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AD Limianos 7 5 2 0 17:10 17
2 Braga B 7 4 3 0 14:7 15
3 GD Braganca 7 4 1 2 9:6 13
4 CDC Montalegre 7 3 3 1 9:4 12
5 Tirsense 7 4 0 3 13:10 12
6 Chaves B 7 4 0 3 9:6 12
7 Ponte da Barca 7 3 1 3 7:9 10
8 Rebordosa 7 2 3 2 10:3 9
9 Celoricense 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
10 Vila Mea 7 2 3 2 10:8 9
11 Maia Lidador 7 2 2 3 9:9 8
12 Brito 7 2 0 5 9:17 6
13 Maria de Fonte 7 1 1 5 4:12 4
14 Vinhais 7 0 0 7 3:22 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)