Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tirsense vs Sao Martinho

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Machado M.
35' Event
Monteiro D.
53' Event
Costa D.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 game between Tirsense and Sao Martinho finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tirsense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Tirsense
15%
Draws
37%
Sao Martinho
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tirsense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Martinho haven't matched Tirsense's recent run of results.
  • 48% — that's where the model lands on Tirsense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 7%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Tirsense Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Martinho Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tirsense Sao Martinho
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 10
Draws 11 4
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 1.23 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.02 0.55
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Tirsense vs Sao Martinho
3:1
Aug 24, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Sao Martinho vs Tirsense
0:4
Feb 12, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Sao Martinho vs Tirsense
1:0
Oct 30, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Tirsense vs Sao Martinho
0:1
Mar 6, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Sao Martinho vs Tirsense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tirsense Compare

Top Goalscorer Machado M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Monteiro D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.51

Sao Martinho Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.5
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tirsense 77 / 100
Sao Martinho 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tirsense Sao Martinho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tirsense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tirsense's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Sao Martinho conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Tirsense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tirsense VS Sao Martinho
0.75 Goals Scored 0.86
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.29
25% Over 1.5 71%
0% Over 2.5 43%
0% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Tirsense

(Home)
19 Sept
Mafra
3 : 2
Tirsense
13 Sept
Tirsense
2 : 0
Brito
06 Sept
Celoricense
2 : 1
Tirsense
23 Aug
Tirsense
3 : 0
Vinhais
16 Aug
Rebordosa
0 : 1
Tirsense
Page 1 of 7

Sao Martinho

(Away)
18 Apr
Sao Martinho
3 : 1
Desportivo Moncao
12 Apr
SC Mirandela
2 : 0
Sao Martinho
04 Apr
Sao Martinho
2 : 0
CD Ribeira Brava
22 Mar
Celoricense
0 : 0
Sao Martinho
15 Mar
Sao Martinho
0 : 1
Vilaverdense FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 GD Braganca 26 14 6 6 41:29 48
2 SC Vianense 26 14 6 6 49:28 48
3 Brito 26 14 4 8 36:24 46
4 Celoricense 26 11 9 6 35:23 42
5 AD Limianos 26 11 8 7 35:32 41
6 Tirsense 26 9 13 4 31:22 40
7 Camacha 26 9 9 8 34:26 36
8 Chaves B 26 9 9 8 40:29 36
9 Machico 26 10 6 10 28:30 36
10 Sao Martinho 26 10 4 12 22:31 34
11 SC Mirandela 26 10 2 14 21:29 32
12 Vilaverdense FC 26 4 9 13 15:31 21
13 CD Ribeira Brava 26 4 8 14 20:46 20
14 Desportivo Moncao 26 4 5 17 26:53 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)