Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tlaxcala vs Cancun Prediction & H2H Stats

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Ruiz L.
19'
Santos E.
23' Event
Trejo C.
Assist: Rodriguez J.

AI Match Summary

Tlaxcala in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tlaxcala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Tlaxcala
30%
Draws
31%
Cancun
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tlaxcala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Cancun have won more games recently than Tlaxcala.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 10%
Cancun Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tlaxcala Cancun
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 8 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.31 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Cancun
4:1
Jan 17, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Cancun
1:0
Aug 10, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Cancun vs Tlaxcala
3:0
Mar 16, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Cancun
1:1
Sep 28, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Cancun vs Tlaxcala
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tlaxcala Compare

Top Goalscorer Robles E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ramirez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Cancun Compare

Top Goalscorer Trejo C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tlaxcala 34 / 100
Cancun 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tlaxcala Cancun

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cancun Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Tlaxcala scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Cancun conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: Tlaxcala remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tlaxcala VS Cancun
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tlaxcala

(Home)
26 Sept
Tlaxcala
4 : 1
Cancun
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0
Tlaxcala
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1
Jaiba Brava
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1
Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1
Venados FC
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Cancun

(Away)
26 Sept
Tlaxcala
4 : 1
Cancun
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
16 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
1 : 1
Cancun
12 Sept
Correcaminos
2 : 2
Cancun
06 Sept
Cancun
6 : 0
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Atletico Morelia 10 7 0 3 20:11 21
2 Atletico La Paz 10 6 2 2 23:11 20
3 Leones Negros 10 6 2 2 21:13 20
4 Zacatecas Mineros 10 5 2 3 21:15 17
5 Venados FC 10 5 1 4 24:20 16
6 Piratas 10 4 3 3 12:10 15
7 Correcaminos 10 4 3 3 19:18 15
8 Cancun 10 4 2 4 18:15 14
9 Tapatio 9 4 2 3 17:14 14
10 Alacranes de Durango 10 4 2 4 7:9 14
11 Dorados de Sinaloa 10 3 4 3 17:14 13
12 Tlaxcala 10 3 2 5 18:22 11
13 Jaiba Brava 10 3 2 5 11:16 11
14 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 3 1 6 8:18 10
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 1 4 5 11:18 7
16 Tepatitlan de Morelos 9 1 0 8 5:28 3
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)