Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tlaxcala vs Irapuato

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Sanchez B.
26' Event
Oliveira Silva C. H.
(Penalty)
42'
Blanco J.

AI Match Summary

Tlaxcala in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tlaxcala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Tlaxcala
15%
Draws
51%
Irapuato
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Irapuato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Tlaxcala haven't matched Irapuato's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Irapuato's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 10%
Irapuato Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tlaxcala Irapuato
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 12
Draws 8 9
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.31 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.03 2.12
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Irapuato
2:1
Aug 17, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Irapuato vs Tlaxcala
3:0
Mar 8, 2020 Liga Premier Serie A
Irapuato vs Tlaxcala
2:3
Oct 5, 2019 Liga Premier Serie A
Tlaxcala vs Irapuato
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tlaxcala Compare

Top Goalscorer Figueroa F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.79
Avg xA / game 0.52

Irapuato Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.93
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tlaxcala 14 / 100
Irapuato 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tlaxcala Irapuato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Irapuato Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tlaxcala's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Irapuato let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Tlaxcala stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tlaxcala VS Irapuato
1.5 Goals Scored 1.86
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.57
100% Over 1.5 71%
75% Over 2.5 71%
75% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Tlaxcala

(Home)
26 Sept
Tlaxcala
4 : 1
Cancun
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0
Tlaxcala
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1
Jaiba Brava
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1
Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1
Venados FC
Page 1 of 6

Irapuato

(Away)
27 Sept
Irapuato
3 : 0
Lobos ULMX
22 Sept
Reboceros de La Piedad
2 : 3
Irapuato
13 Sept
Irapuato
2 : 1
Tigres de Alica
05 Sept
Cordobes FC
0 : 3
Irapuato
30 Aug
Irapuato
2 : 1
Los Cabos United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tepatitlan de Morelos 14 7 5 2 21:10 26
2 Cancun 14 7 4 3 24:17 25
3 Club Atletico Morelia 14 7 2 5 18:12 23
4 Atletico La Paz 14 5 7 2 22:12 22
5 Jaiba Brava 14 6 3 5 15:15 21
6 Zacatecas Mineros 14 6 3 5 19:20 21
7 Tapatio 14 6 2 6 28:24 20
8 Atlante 14 5 5 4 21:17 20
9 Irapuato 14 6 2 6 27:24 20
10 Tlaxcala 14 5 5 4 16:17 20
11 Venados FC 14 4 4 6 25:25 16
12 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14 4 4 6 20:29 16
13 Dorados de Sinaloa 14 3 4 7 17:28 13
14 Correcaminos 14 3 3 8 14:27 12
15 Leones Negros 14 2 5 7 15:25 11
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)