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Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala Logo

Tlaxcala

5 - 2
FT
Leones Negros Logo

Leones Negros

Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Oliveira Silva C. H.
Assist: Govea I.
19' Event
Oliveira Silva C. H.
29' Event
Silva J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tlaxcala in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tlaxcala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Tlaxcala
30%
Draws
39%
Leones Negros
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Leones Negros

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Leones Negros lately — more wins on the board than Tlaxcala.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 10%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tlaxcala Leones Negros
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 9
Draws 8 7
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.31 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros
2:4
Feb 8, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros
5:2
Aug 31, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Tlaxcala
2:2
Feb 2, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Tlaxcala
5:1
Aug 18, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tlaxcala Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliveira Silva C. H.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Silva J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Leones Negros Compare

Top Goalscorer Rivera E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cisneros C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tlaxcala 34 / 100
Leones Negros 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tlaxcala Leones Negros

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leones Negros Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leones Negros has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 5.20 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Tlaxcala scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Tlaxcala has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tlaxcala VS Leones Negros
1.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tlaxcala

(Home)
04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1
Tlaxcala
26 Sept
Tlaxcala
4 : 1
Cancun
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0
Tlaxcala
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1
Jaiba Brava
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1
Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6

Leones Negros

(Away)
04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3
Dorados de Sinaloa
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2
Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0
Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2
Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3
Leones Negros
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tepatitlan de Morelos 14 7 5 2 21:10 26
2 Cancun 14 7 4 3 24:17 25
3 Club Atletico Morelia 14 7 2 5 18:12 23
4 Atletico La Paz 14 5 7 2 22:12 22
5 Jaiba Brava 14 6 3 5 15:15 21
6 Zacatecas Mineros 14 6 3 5 19:20 21
7 Tapatio 14 6 2 6 28:24 20
8 Atlante 14 5 5 4 21:17 20
9 Irapuato 14 6 2 6 27:24 20
10 Tlaxcala 14 5 5 4 16:17 20
11 Venados FC 14 4 4 6 25:25 16
12 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14 4 4 6 20:29 16
13 Dorados de Sinaloa 14 3 4 7 17:28 13
14 Correcaminos 14 3 3 8 14:27 12
15 Leones Negros 14 2 5 7 15:25 11
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)