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Tlaxcala vs Piratas

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Tlahuicole, Tlaxcala
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
10:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tlaxcala host Piratas in the Liga de Expansion MX. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Tlaxcala at 1.31 goals for, 1.83 against; Piratas at 1.2 for, 1 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.81, favoring Piratas. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Tlaxcala
30%
Draws
31%
Piratas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tlaxcala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Tlaxcala have won more games recently than Piratas.
  • Tlaxcala are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 11%
Piratas Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tlaxcala Piratas
Matches Played 29 10
Wins 8 4
Draws 8 3
Losses 13 3
Goals Scored 1.31 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.83 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tlaxcala 38 / 100
Piratas 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tlaxcala Piratas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tlaxcala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tlaxcala found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Piratas's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 10 matches.

Tlaxcala went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Piratas has suffered 1 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tlaxcala VS Piratas
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
75% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Tlaxcala

(Home)
26 Sept
Tlaxcala
4 : 1
Cancun
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0
Tlaxcala
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1
Jaiba Brava
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1
Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1
Venados FC
Page 1 of 6

Piratas

(Away)
25 Sept
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0
Piratas
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1
Venados FC
11 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 1
Piratas
06 Sept
Piratas
4 : 1
Correcaminos
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1
Piratas
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Atletico Morelia 10 7 0 3 20:11 21
2 Atletico La Paz 10 6 2 2 23:11 20
3 Leones Negros 10 6 2 2 21:13 20
4 Zacatecas Mineros 10 5 2 3 21:15 17
5 Venados FC 10 5 1 4 24:20 16
6 Piratas 10 4 3 3 12:10 15
7 Correcaminos 10 4 3 3 19:18 15
8 Cancun 10 4 2 4 18:15 14
9 Tapatio 9 4 2 3 17:14 14
10 Alacranes de Durango 10 4 2 4 7:9 14
11 Dorados de Sinaloa 10 3 4 3 17:14 13
12 Tlaxcala 10 3 2 5 18:22 11
13 Jaiba Brava 10 3 2 5 11:16 11
14 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 3 1 6 8:18 10
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 1 4 5 11:18 7
16 Tepatitlan de Morelos 9 1 0 8 5:28 3
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)