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Stadium Background

TNS vs Caernarfon

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier 2025/2026 Park Hall, Oswestry
TNS Logo

TNS

2 - 1
FT
Caernarfon Logo

Caernarfon

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Redmond D.
11'
Sub
Jones M. In: Williams C.
Out: Jones M.
30'
Harrison K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Cymru Premier 2025/2026 game between TNS and Caernarfon finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward TNS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
TNS
20%
Draws
44%
Caernarfon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caernarfon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • TNS carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives TNS a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors TNS here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
TNS Clean Sheet 18%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric TNS Caernarfon
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 13
Draws 3 6
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.66 1.6
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 27, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs TNS
0:4
Feb 20, 2026 Cymru Premier
TNS vs Caernarfon
2:1
Nov 28, 2025 Cymru Premier
TNS vs Caernarfon
2:0
Nov 4, 2025 League Cup
TNS vs Caernarfon
3:0
Oct 7, 2025 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs TNS
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

TNS Compare

Top Goalscorer Redmond D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Wilson B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Caernarfon Compare

Top Goalscorer Young B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

TNS 85 / 100
Caernarfon 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
TNS Caernarfon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TNS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: TNS scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Caernarfon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: TNS stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

TNS VS Caernarfon
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

TNS

(Home)
07 Aug
TNS
2 : 0
Haverfordwest
02 Aug
Penybont
0 : 0
TNS
30 Jul
TNS
1 : 1
Flora
23 Jul
Flora
1 : 0
TNS
14 Jul
TNS
1 : 2
Sabah Baku
Page 1 of 6

Caernarfon

(Away)
07 Aug
Caernarfon
1 : 2
Penybont
02 Aug
Connahs Q.
1 : 2
Caernarfon
16 Jul
Levadia
5 : 0
Caernarfon
09 Jul
Caernarfon
0 : 5
Levadia
20 Jun
Glentoran
1 : 2
Caernarfon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 32 26 2 4 81:25 80
2 Connahs Q. 32 16 10 6 61:38 58
3 Barry Town 32 12 10 10 43:33 46
4 Caernarfon 32 12 9 11 56:47 45
5 Colwyn Bay 32 12 9 11 41:37 45
6 Penybont 32 11 8 13 39:49 41
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)