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Tobol 2 vs Kairat Almaty 2

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Birkurmanov M.

AI Match Summary

The First League game between Tobol 2 and Kairat Almaty 2 finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kairat Almaty 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Tobol 2
15%
Draws
58%
Kairat Almaty 2
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kairat Almaty 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Kairat Almaty 2 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Kairat Almaty 2 are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular First League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Tobol 2 Clean Sheet 10%
Kairat Almaty 2 Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tobol 2 Kairat Almaty 2
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 5 22
Draws 7 5
Losses 18 5
Goals Scored 1.63 2.75
Goals Conceded 2.37 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 First League
Tobol 2 vs Kairat Almaty 2
0:1
Jun 12, 2026 First League
Kairat Almaty 2 vs Tobol 2
7:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tobol 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Kairat Almaty 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Birkurmanov M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tobol 2 14 / 100
Kairat Almaty 2 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tobol 2 Kairat Almaty 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kairat Almaty 2 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Tobol 2 scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Kairat Almaty 2 has conceded goals in 50% of their last 32 outings.

Tobol 2 has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tobol 2 VS Kairat Almaty 2
1.38 Goals Scored 2.63
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Tobol 2

(Home)
19 Sept
Tobol 2
3 : 0
Kaspij Aktau 2
11 Sept
FC Ekibastuz
1 : 5
Tobol 2
03 Sept
Tobol 2
0 : 1
Kairat Almaty 2
28 Aug
Taraz
3 : 1
Tobol 2
20 Aug
Tobol 2
3 : 4
Khan Tengri
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Kairat Almaty 2

(Away)
18 Sept
Khan Tengri
0 : 2
Kairat Almaty 2
10 Sept
Kairat Almaty 2
2 : 2
FC Astana 2
03 Sept
Tobol 2
0 : 1
Kairat Almaty 2
27 Aug
Kairat Almaty 2
1 : 0
Arys
21 Aug
Turan
0 : 4
Kairat Almaty 2
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
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