Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu

Japan Japan

J2/J3 League Pocarisweat Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Sugimoto T.
24'
Kanuma N.
34'
Yanagisawa K.

AI Match Summary

The J2/J3 League game between Tokushima and Sagan Tosu finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tokushima.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Tokushima
33%
Draws
27%
Sagan Tosu
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Tokushima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tokushima come out ahead of Sagan Tosu on wins alone.
  • Tokushima are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular J2/J3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Tokushima Clean Sheet 68%
Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tokushima Sagan Tosu
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 15
Draws 3 3
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.38 1.75
Goals Conceded 2.25 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 J2/J3 League
Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu
3:1
Nov 2, 2025 J2 League
Sagan Tosu vs Tokushima
0:0
May 6, 2025 J2 League
Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu
0:1
Oct 3, 2021 J1 League
Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu
3:0
May 1, 2021 J1 League
Sagan Tosu vs Tokushima
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tokushima Compare

Top Goalscorer Kajiya Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sugimoto T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sagan Tosu Compare

Top Goalscorer Hyon R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tokushima 50 / 100
Sagan Tosu 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tokushima Sagan Tosu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tokushima's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Sagan Tosu let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Tokushima remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tokushima VS Sagan Tosu
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Blaublitz2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo1
Albirex Niigata0
Kagoshima United1
Thespakusatsu Gunma0
Gifu1
Kanazawa1
Gainare Tottori3
Kamatamare Sanuki3
Giravanz Kitakyushu1
Tochigi SC0
Nagano Parceiro1
Tokushima3
Sagan Tosu1
Shonan Bellmare1
Iwaki2
Yokohama FC2
Omiya Ardija1
Kochi United2
Renofa Yamaguchi3
Montedio Yamagata1
Matsumoto Yamaga2
Nara Club4
Oita Trinita3
SC Sagamihara4
Fujieda MYFC3
Ehime0
Kumamoto1
Vanraure0
Fukushima United1
Imabari1
Ryukyu2
Tochigi City4
Iwata3
FC Osaka0
Reilac Shiga1
Final
Blaublitz0
Kagoshima United2
Gifu1
Gainare Tottori2
Kamatamare Sanuki0
Nagano Parceiro1
Tokushima2
Iwaki0
Yokohama FC2
Renofa Yamaguchi1
Matsumoto Yamaga0
Nara Club2
SC Sagamihara3
Kumamoto0
Fukushima United2
Ryukyu1
Tochigi City3
Reilac Shiga1