Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu

Japan Japan

J2/J3 League Pocarisweat Stadium, Naruto
Tokushima Logo

Tokushima

3 - 1
FT
Sagan Tosu Logo

Sagan Tosu

Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Sugimoto T.
24'
Kanuma N.
34'
Yanagisawa K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Tokushima
15%
Draws
21%
Sagan Tosu
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tokushima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Sagan Tosu's 1.59 goals per match outpaces what Tokushima have produced (1.52).
  • Tokushima are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Tokushima, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Tokushima Clean Sheet 68%
Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tokushima Sagan Tosu
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 16
Draws 1 2
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.52 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.31 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 J2 League
Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu
0:0
May 30, 2026 J2/J3 League
Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu
3:1
Nov 2, 2025 J2 League
Sagan Tosu vs Tokushima
0:0
May 6, 2025 J2 League
Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu
0:1
Oct 3, 2021 J1 League
Tokushima vs Sagan Tosu
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tokushima Compare

Top Goalscorer Kajiya Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sugimoto T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Sagan Tosu Compare

Top Goalscorer Hyon R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tokushima 50 / 100
Sagan Tosu 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tokushima Sagan Tosu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tokushima Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tokushima scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Tokushima went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Sagan Tosu has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Tokushima VS Sagan Tosu
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tokushima

(Home)
26 Sept
Tokushima
3 : 0
Tochigi City
23 Sept
Gamba Osaka
5 : 0
Tokushima
19 Sept
Kofu
0 : 1
Tokushima
12 Sept
Blaublitz
4 : 1
Tokushima
05 Sept
Tokushima
1 : 0
Iwaki
Page 1 of 6

Sagan Tosu

(Away)
29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1
Verdy
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0
Sagan Tosu
23 Sept
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0
Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3
Iwaki
12 Sept
Imabari
1 : 0
Sagan Tosu
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Blaublitz 2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Kagoshima United 1
Thespakusatsu Gunma 0
Gifu 1
Kanazawa 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Kamatamare Sanuki 3
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Tochigi SC 0
Nagano Parceiro 1
Tokushima 3
Sagan Tosu 1
Shonan Bellmare 1
Iwaki 2
Yokohama FC 2
Omiya Ardija 1
Kochi United 2
Renofa Yamaguchi 3
Montedio Yamagata 1
Matsumoto Yamaga 2
Nara Club 4
Oita Trinita 3
SC Sagamihara 4
Fujieda MYFC 3
Ehime 0
Kumamoto 1
Vanraure 0
Fukushima United 1
Imabari 1
Ryukyu 2
Tochigi City 4
Iwata 3
FC Osaka 0
Reilac Shiga 1
Final
Blaublitz 0
Kagoshima United 2
Gifu 1
Gainare Tottori 2
Kamatamare Sanuki 0
Nagano Parceiro 1
Tokushima 2
Iwaki 0
Yokohama FC 2
Renofa Yamaguchi 1
Matsumoto Yamaga 0
Nara Club 2
SC Sagamihara 3
Kumamoto 0
Fukushima United 2
Ryukyu 1
Tochigi City 3
Reilac Shiga 1