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Toledo vs Arapongas

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Campeonato Paranaense 2014
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Paranaense 2014 game between Toledo and Arapongas finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Toledo
30%
Draws
39%
Arapongas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Arapongas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arapongas come out ahead of Toledo on wins alone.
  • Model gives Arapongas a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Toledo Clean Sheet 19%
Arapongas Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toledo Arapongas
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 10 8
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.03 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2014 Paranaense
Toledo vs Arapongas
2:2
Mar 26, 2014 Paranaense
Arapongas vs Toledo
2:1
Mar 9, 2014 Paranaense
Toledo vs Arapongas
2:2
Mar 28, 2013 Paranaense
Toledo vs Arapongas
2:1
Feb 6, 2013 Paranaense
Arapongas vs Toledo
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toledo 10 / 100
Arapongas 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toledo Arapongas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arapongas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toledo's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Defensive concern: Arapongas conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Toledo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Toledo VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Toledo

(Home)
10 May
Parana
6 : 1
Toledo
03 May
Toledo
0 : 2
Parana
25 Apr
Paranavai-PR
0 : 1
Toledo
19 Apr
Toledo
0 : 0
Rio Branco PR
10 Apr
Parana
2 : 0
Toledo
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Arapongas

(Away)
09 Nov
Arapongas
1 : 2
Batel
02 Nov
Batel
2 : 2
Arapongas
26 Oct
Arapongas
0 : 2
Iraty
20 Oct
Iraty
0 : 3
Arapongas
13 Oct
Arapongas
0 : 0
Associacao Portuguesa Londrinense
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