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Toledo vs Manchego Ciudad Real - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

69' Event
Rosell A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 game between Toledo and Manchego Ciudad Real finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toledo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Toledo
15%
Draws
51%
Manchego Ciudad Real
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Manchego Ciudad Real

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Manchego Ciudad Real carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Toledo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
Toledo Clean Sheet 68%
Manchego Ciudad Real Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toledo Manchego Ciudad Real
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 18
Draws 7 5
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.53 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.7 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Toledo vs Manchego Ciudad Real
1:0
Nov 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Manchego Ciudad Real vs Toledo
1:1
Apr 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Toledo vs Manchego Ciudad Real
0:0
Nov 30, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Manchego Ciudad Real vs Toledo
1:0
Apr 16, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Toledo vs Manchego Ciudad Real
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toledo Compare

Top Goalscorer Rosell A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Manchego Ciudad Real Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toledo 51 / 100
Manchego Ciudad Real 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toledo Manchego Ciudad Real

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Toledo scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Toledo has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Manchego Ciudad Real's defensive record shows goals conceded in 37% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Toledo VS Manchego Ciudad Real
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Toledo

(Home)
03 Oct
Villacanas
1 : 2
Toledo
27 Sept
Toledo
4 : 0
La Solana
19 Sept
Noblejas
2 : 1
Toledo
12 Sept
Toledo
1 : 1
Villarrubia
06 Sept
Quintanar del Rey
2 : 4
Toledo
Page 1 of 6

Manchego Ciudad Real

(Away)
04 Oct
Manchego Ciudad Real
1 : 0
UD Almansa
27 Sept
Manchego Ciudad Real
3 : 2
Marchamalo
20 Sept
Huracan de Balazote
0 : 1
Manchego Ciudad Real
12 Sept
Manchego Ciudad Real
2 : 0
Villacanas
05 Sept
La Solana
0 : 1
Manchego Ciudad Real
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Puertollano C.F. 34 22 8 4 54:21 74
2 CD Tarancon 34 22 7 5 62:25 73
3 Toledo 34 19 11 4 55:17 68
4 Albacete B 34 17 13 4 49:17 64
5 Manchego Ciudad Real 34 18 7 9 52:29 61
6 Villarrubia 34 15 8 11 42:35 53
7 Villacanas 34 12 12 10 29:26 48
8 San Clemente 34 12 11 11 36:44 47
9 CD Guadalajara B 34 11 10 13 30:37 43
10 Villarrobledo 34 10 13 11 30:36 43
11 Huracan de Balazote 34 12 5 17 33:45 41
12 Illescas 34 8 13 13 21:32 37
13 Marchamalo 34 10 7 17 38:47 37
14 La Solana 34 8 11 15 26:38 35
15 Azuqueca 34 7 13 14 34:39 34
16 CD Pedroneras 34 7 12 15 28:43 33
17 Sonseca 34 5 7 22 28:69 22
18 Cazalegas 34 4 6 24 17:64 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 (Play Offs)