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Toledo vs Navalcarnero

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Pliego Mantero J. R.
(Penalty)
40' Event
Alvarez J.
53' Event

AI Match Summary

Navalcarnero in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Navalcarnero.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Toledo
20%
Draws
47%
Navalcarnero
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Navalcarnero

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Toledo lately — more wins on the board than Navalcarnero.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Toledo taking it.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Navalcarnero here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Toledo Clean Sheet 14%
Navalcarnero Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toledo Navalcarnero
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 9
Draws 7 7
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.62 1.36
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 5, 2026 Club Friendly
Toledo vs Navalcarnero
1:3
Aug 9, 2019 Club Friendly
Navalcarnero vs Toledo
1:0
Aug 8, 2018 Club Friendly
Toledo vs Navalcarnero
0:2
Jan 14, 2018 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Toledo vs Navalcarnero
1:2
Aug 27, 2017 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Navalcarnero vs Toledo
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toledo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Navalcarnero Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ortiz A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toledo 41 / 100
Navalcarnero 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toledo Navalcarnero

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toledo scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Navalcarnero has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Toledo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toledo VS Navalcarnero
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Toledo

(Home)
27 Sept
Toledo
4 : 0
La Solana
19 Sept
Noblejas
2 : 1
Toledo
12 Sept
Toledo
1 : 1
Villarrubia
06 Sept
Quintanar del Rey
2 : 4
Toledo
05 Aug
Toledo
1 : 3
Navalcarnero
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Navalcarnero

(Away)
27 Sept
Navalcarnero
1 : 3
Conquense
23 Sept
Atletico Saguntino
0 : 4
Navalcarnero
20 Sept
Atletico Tordesillas
2 : 2
Navalcarnero
13 Sept
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Real Avila
09 Sept
CF Talavera
0 : 2
Navalcarnero
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