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Toledo vs Villacanas

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Molina L.
46' Event
Molina L.
84' Event
Barreto S.

AI Match Summary

Toledo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toledo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Toledo
35%
Draws
49%
Villacanas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Villacanas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Toledo lately — more wins on the board than Villacanas.
  • 16% — that's where the model lands on Toledo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Toledo Clean Sheet 68%
Villacanas Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toledo Villacanas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 10
Draws 8 11
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.43 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.7 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Toledo vs Villacanas
4:0
Dec 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Villacanas vs Toledo
0:2
May 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Toledo vs Villacanas
1:2
May 17, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Villacanas vs Toledo
1:0
Feb 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Toledo vs Villacanas
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toledo Compare

Top Goalscorer Molina L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Barreto S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Villacanas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.4
Avg xA / game 0.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toledo 68 / 100
Villacanas 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toledo Villacanas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toledo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Toledo scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Villacanas conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Toledo has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toledo VS Villacanas
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Toledo

(Home)
05 Aug
Toledo
1 : 3
Navalcarnero
24 May
Toledo
0 : 1
Albacete B
17 May
Albacete B
0 : 0
Toledo
10 May
CD Pedroneras
1 : 0
Toledo
03 May
Toledo
0 : 2
Puertollano C.F.
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Villacanas

(Away)
06 Aug
Villacanas
0 : 3
CF Talavera
09 May
Villacanas
0 : 0
Villarrobledo
03 May
Albacete B
1 : 1
Villacanas
25 Apr
Villacanas
1 : 1
La Solana
18 Apr
Toledo
4 : 0
Villacanas
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Puertollano C.F. 34 22 8 4 54:21 74
2 CD Tarancon 34 22 7 5 62:25 73
3 Toledo 34 19 11 4 55:17 68
4 Albacete B 34 17 13 4 49:17 64
5 Manchego Ciudad Real 34 18 7 9 52:29 61
6 Villarrubia 34 15 8 11 42:35 53
7 Villacanas 34 12 12 10 29:26 48
8 San Clemente 34 12 11 11 36:44 47
9 CD Guadalajara B 34 11 10 13 30:37 43
10 Villarrobledo 34 10 13 11 30:36 43
11 Huracan de Balazote 34 12 5 17 33:45 41
12 Illescas 34 8 13 13 21:32 37
13 Marchamalo 34 10 7 17 38:47 37
14 La Solana 34 8 11 15 26:38 35
15 Azuqueca 34 7 13 14 34:39 34
16 CD Pedroneras 34 7 12 15 28:43 33
17 Sonseca 34 5 7 22 28:69 22
18 Cazalegas 34 4 6 24 17:64 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 (Play Offs)