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Tolka vs Longford

Ireland Ireland

FAI Cup 2003/2004
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Longford in this FAI Cup 2003/2004 tie, finishing 1-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Tolka
15%
Draws
46%
Longford
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Longford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Longford lately — more wins on the board than Tolka.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Longford arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Longford, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 91%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 91%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Tolka Clean Sheet 10%
Longford Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tolka Longford
Matches Played 17 30
Wins 6 14
Draws 3 5
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.47 1.67
Goals Conceded 2.06 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 2.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 27, 2003 FAI Cup
Tolka vs Longford
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tolka 30 / 100
Longford 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tolka Longford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Tolka scored in 76% of their last 17 outings.

Defensive concern: Longford conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Tolka stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tolka VS Longford
0 Goals Scored 2.88
3 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tolka

(Home)
19 Jul
Derry City
3 : 0
Tolka
16 May
Fairview Rangers
0 : 3
Tolka
18 Jul
Galway United
2 : 0
Tolka
18 May
Tolka
3 : 1
Janesboro
21 Aug
Tolka
0 : 4
Killester Donnycarney
Page 1 of 4

Longford

(Away)
26 Sept
Longford
2 : 1
Cork City
18 Sept
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Longford
12 Sept
Longford
0 : 2
Treaty United
05 Sept
Longford
0 : 1
Kerry
28 Aug
Cobh Ramblers
2 : 2
Longford
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
St. Patricks 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
Portmarnock 0
Dublin City 1
St Mochta's 0
Cherry Orchard 3
Crumlin Utd 1
Kildare County 3
Drogheda 2
Finn Harps 1
UC Dublin 2
Belgrove 0
Skerries Town 1
Monaghan United 0
Dundalk 0
Bohemians 2
Galway United 2
Loughshinny United 0
Cobh Ramblers 0
Derry City 1
Shelbourne 2
Cork City 0
Moyle Park 0
Sligo Rovers 2
Waterford 3
Home Farm 1
Athlone 3
Bray 6
Limerick 2
Kilkenny City 1
Tolka 1
Longford 4
1/8-finals
St. Patricks 3
Dublin City 0
Cherry Orchard 0
Kildare County 1
Drogheda 2
UC Dublin 0
Skerries Town 0
Bohemians 3
Galway United 2
Derry City 1
Shelbourne 2
Sligo Rovers 3
Waterford 2
Bray 1
Limerick 1
Longford 2
Quarter-finals
St. Patricks 2
Kildare County 1
Drogheda 1
Bohemians 4
Galway United 2
Sligo Rovers 1
Waterford 1
Longford 3
Semi-finals
St. Patricks 3
Bohemians 3
Galway United 0
Longford 1
Final
St. Patricks 0
Longford 2