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Tolmin vs Vrhnika

Slovenia Slovenia

3. SNL - West 2025/2026
Tolmin Logo

Tolmin

2 - 1
FT
Vrhnika Logo

Vrhnika

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The 3. SNL - West 2025/2026 game between Tolmin and Vrhnika finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tolmin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Tolmin
35%
Draws
34%
Vrhnika
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Vrhnika carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Tolmin a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular 3. SNL - West 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Tolmin here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Tolmin Clean Sheet 15%
Vrhnika Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tolmin Vrhnika
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 15 20
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.83 2.12
Goals Conceded 1.37 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Vrhnika
2:1
Sep 27, 2025 3. SNL - West
Vrhnika vs Tolmin
0:1
Apr 22, 2023 3. SNL - West
Vrhnika vs Tolmin
1:1
Oct 1, 2022 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Vrhnika
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tolmin 41 / 100
Vrhnika 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tolmin Vrhnika

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Tolmin stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Tolmin found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

Vrhnika has conceded goals in 58% of their last 33 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tolmin VS Vrhnika
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Tolmin

(Home)
13 Sept
Ziri
2 : 4
Tolmin
05 Sept
Tolmin
2 : 2
Skofja Loka
29 Aug
Tolmin
1 : 0
IB 1975 Ljubljana
22 Aug
Sencur
3 : 3
Tolmin
15 Aug
Tolmin
1 : 1
Dob
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Vrhnika

(Away)
12 Sept
Slovan Ljubljana
0 : 0
Vrhnika
04 Sept
Vrhnika
4 : 2
Rudar
29 Aug
Bistrica
2 : 0
Vrhnika
22 Aug
Vrhnika
2 : 0
Dravinja
15 Aug
NK Brezice
1 : 2
Vrhnika
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vrhnika 26 17 5 4 63:21 56
2 Sencur 26 16 6 4 46:27 54
3 Dob 26 15 5 6 54:29 50
4 Tolmin 26 14 3 9 47:33 45
5 Izola 26 12 6 8 53:39 42
6 Rudar Trbovlje 26 11 8 7 56:39 41
7 IB 1975 Ljubljana 26 11 3 12 35:44 36
8 Sobec Lesce 26 10 6 10 31:32 36
9 Skofja Loka 26 7 9 10 37:42 30
10 Ziri 26 7 6 13 30:52 27
11 Fama Vipava 26 6 8 12 28:42 26
12 Ljubljana Svoboda 26 6 5 15 30:51 23
13 Zidgrad Idrija 26 6 4 16 34:57 22
14 Bistrc 26 5 4 17 35:71 19
Promotion - 2. SNL (Main)