Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tolmin vs Vrhnika

Slovenia Slovenia

3. SNL - West 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The 3. SNL - West 2025/2026 game between Tolmin and Vrhnika finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tolmin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Tolmin
39%
Draws
31%
Vrhnika
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Vrhnika carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular 3. SNL - West 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 87%).
  • History favors Tolmin here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 87%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Tolmin Clean Sheet 10%
Vrhnika Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tolmin Vrhnika
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 19
Draws 4 7
Losses 11 4
Goals Scored 2.38 3.5
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 3.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Vrhnika
2:1
Sep 27, 2025 3. SNL - West
Vrhnika vs Tolmin
0:1
Apr 22, 2023 3. SNL - West
Vrhnika vs Tolmin
1:1
Oct 1, 2022 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Vrhnika
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tolmin 29 / 100
Vrhnika 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tolmin Vrhnika

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Tolmin stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Tolmin found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

Vrhnika has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tolmin VS Vrhnika
2.38 Goals Scored 3.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vrhnika26175463:2156
2Sencur26166446:2754
3Dob26155654:2950
4Tolmin26143947:3345
5Izola26126853:3942
6Rudar Trbovlje26118756:3941
7IB 1975 Ljubljana261131235:4436
8Sobec Lesce261061031:3236
9Skofja Loka26791037:4230
10Ziri26761330:5227
11Fama Vipava26681228:4226
12Ljubljana Svoboda26651530:5123
13Zidgrad Idrija26641634:5722
14Bistrc26541735:7119