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Tolosa vs CD Ariznabarra - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tolosa in this Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tolosa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Tolosa
15%
Draws
85%
CD Ariznabarra
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CD Ariznabarra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Tolosa have won more games recently than CD Ariznabarra.
  • CD Ariznabarra are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Tolosa have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Tolosa Clean Sheet 13%
CD Ariznabarra Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tolosa CD Ariznabarra
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 8 5
Draws 3 9
Losses 21 16
Goals Scored 1.34 0.9
Goals Conceded 2.09 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs CD Ariznabarra
4:0
Apr 18, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Ariznabarra vs Tolosa
1:2
Feb 9, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Ariznabarra vs Tolosa
2:1
Sep 18, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Tolosa vs CD Ariznabarra
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tolosa 27 / 100
CD Ariznabarra 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tolosa CD Ariznabarra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Ariznabarra Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Ariznabarra has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.25 goals when they meet.

Tolosa found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

CD Ariznabarra's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Tolosa VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
2.38 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
100% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tolosa

(Home)
29 Apr
Tolosa
3 : 4
Santutxu FC
23 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 1
Tolosa
13 Apr
Tolosa
2 : 3
Lagun Onak
09 Apr
CD Vitoria
3 : 2
Tolosa
02 Apr
Tolosa
1 : 4
Amurrio Club
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CD Ariznabarra

(Away)
12 Jun
CD Ariznabarra
2 : 3
Balmaseda
05 Jun
Somorrostro
1 : 1
CD Ariznabarra
29 May
CD Ariznabarra
5 : 1
Urgatzi
22 May
Tolosa
4 : 0
CD Ariznabarra
16 May
CD Ariznabarra
1 : 2
Aurrera Ondarroa
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