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Toluca U21 vs Atlas U21 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U21 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Barboza W.
36' Event
Navarrete L.
55' Event
Barboza W.

AI Match Summary

Toluca U21 in this Liga MX U21 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toluca U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Toluca U21
15%
Draws
24%
Atlas U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Atlas U21 haven't matched Toluca U21's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Toluca U21's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Liga MX U21 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Toluca U21 here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 20%
Atlas U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca U21 Atlas U21
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 21 13
Draws 0 1
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 2.03 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Atlas U21
2:0
Mar 14, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Atlas U21
5:1
Nov 1, 2025 Liga MX U21
Atlas U21 vs Toluca U21
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Barboza W.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Navarrete L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Atlas U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Medrano E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca U21 76 / 100
Atlas U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca U21 Atlas U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Toluca U21 scored in 90% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.67 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Toluca U21 remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Atlas U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Toluca U21 VS Atlas U21
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toluca U21

(Home)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul U21
2 : 3
Toluca U21
20 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Santos Laguna U21
15 Sept
Puebla U21
0 : 1
Toluca U21
12 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Atlas U21
30 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Juarez U21
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Atlas U21

(Away)
25 Sept
Club Tijuana U21
3 : 2
Atlas U21
19 Sept
Atlas U21
1 : 2
UNAM Pumas U21
12 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Atlas U21
05 Sept
Atlas U21
4 : 0
Atlante U21
29 Aug
Atlas U21
2 : 0
Queretaro U21
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America U21 17 12 0 5 32:20 32
2 Guadalajara Chivas U21 17 10 0 7 26:19 32
3 Juarez U21 17 11 0 6 23:18 32
4 Monterrey U21 17 11 0 6 27:25 30
5 Pachuca U21 17 9 0 8 30:18 29
6 Toluca U21 17 9 0 8 32:22 29
7 Atlas U21 17 10 0 7 21:23 29
8 UNAM Pumas U21 17 11 0 6 23:26 28
9 Club Leon U21 17 9 0 8 18:16 27
10 Necaxa U21 17 10 0 7 23:25 26
11 Tigres UANL U21 17 8 0 9 20:18 24
12 Atletico San Luis U21 17 8 0 9 25:24 24
13 Club Tijuana U21 17 6 0 11 28:23 22
14 Cruz Azul U21 17 7 0 10 17:21 22
15 Puebla U21 17 5 0 12 17:22 20
16 Queretaro U21 17 8 0 9 20:27 20
17 Santos Laguna U21 17 5 0 12 16:25 20
18 Mazatlan FC U21 17 4 0 13 5:31 13
Promotion - Liga MX U21 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)